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Justin Danforth

Justin Danforth

BUF·RJersey number #15

Projected · remaining schedule

82 team games · 187 game sample
PTS
27.0
SOG
112.3
G
11.6
A
15.4
PPP
0.9
HIT
145.3
BLK
61.1
PIM
27.6

Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 187 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.

Among forwards · 973 ranked

Production

Style & role

Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 187 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.

Observed rates

per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 187 games incl. playoffs
PTS
0.33
G
0.14
A
0.19
SOG
1.37
PPP
0.01
HIT
1.78
BLK
0.74
PIM
0.33

Season totals

regular season
SeasonGPGAPP/GPSOGTOI
2025-2640000.00211:42
2024-2561912210.349414:23
2023-24711016260.378614:16
2022-2362130.501013:23
2021-2245104140.317212:34

Last 10 · game log

DateOppSOGGAPPPHITBLKPIMTOI
Oct 15vs OTT00000106:14
Oct 13vs COL000000017:35
Oct 11@ BOS000031013:27
Oct 9vs NYR20000229:33
Apr 17vs NYI101000012:51
Apr 15@ PHI200030212:05
Apr 13@ WSH000030013:15
Apr 12vs WSH400020015:09
Apr 10vs BUF200022013:19
Apr 8vs OTT111020013:17

Finishing — goals above expected

open play, regular season
SeasonxGGGAxGPAtt
2025-260.10minus 0.1 goals above expected23
2024-2512.19minus 3.1 goals above expected52124
2023-2413.110minus 3.1 goals above expected61142
2022-231.92plus 0.1 goals above expected617
2021-228.010plus 2.0 goals above expected41106

Production by strength

G-A-P, regular season
SeasonEven strengthPower playShorthanded
2025-260 goals, 0 assists, 0 points0-0-00-0-0
2024-258 goals, 11 assists, 19 points0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point
2023-2410 goals, 16 assists, 26 points0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points
2022-232 goals, 1 assist, 3 points0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points0-0-0
2021-2210 goals, 3 assists, 13 points0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points

Shot locations

3 attempts · 0 goals · 2025-26
Missed the net (1)Shot on goal (2)Goal (0)

No modeled markets for this player. The stats above are this player's full record.

Per-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.