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Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

Projections

Every headline stat per skater — over a full regular season, ranked league-wide by points.

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Each player's recency-weighted per-game rate — from 5 seasons of real games, recent games weighted more (the weighting is backtested) — × their team's scheduled games in the window. Computed overnight, then only read — this page never recalculates a projection. Availability is not projected: Proj GP is the team's schedule, not a forecast of how many games the player dresses for, and injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled.

How well does projection ordering hold? View the ordering study

897 skaters · sorted by points

#
Skater
PTS
G
A
SOG
PPP
HIT
BLK
PIM
Proj GP
1
Connor McDavidEDM · C
132.8
40.9
91.9
289.9
48.9
66.1
34.5
39.5
82
2
Nikita KucherovTBL · R
129.3
40.5
88.8
265.7
43.9
41.8
31.6
49.2
82
3
Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
124.5
47.6
76.9
359.0
36.0
61.1
47.1
40.2
82
4
Leon DraisaitlEDM · C
120.3
47.6
72.6
241.1
46.6
51.4
29.2
39.4
82
5
David PastrnakBOS · R
104.4
38.5
65.9
311.9
30.6
84.4
30.9
62.6
82
6
Macklin CelebriniSJS · C
102.1
40.1
62.0
282.6
30.6
50.5
55.8
40.6
82
7
Kirill KaprizovMIN · L
99.3
47.0
52.2
280.9
34.3
60.8
37.7
32.9
82
8
Jack HughesNJD · C
99.0
36.8
62.1
314.2
33.0
9.2
39.0
15.7
82
9
Mikko RantanenDAL · R
97.2
33.4
63.8
215.3
39.4
65.1
48.5
86.3
82
10
Jack EichelVGK · C
93.7
27.3
66.4
269.9
31.1
47.3
62.7
23.1
82
11
William NylanderTOR · R
92.6
40.0
52.6
240.4
28.5
20.5
31.2
23.4
82
12
Mark ScheifeleWPG · C
92.5
36.0
56.4
177.9
22.7
54.1
49.9
51.8
82
13
Mitch MarnerVGK · R
92.3
27.2
65.0
178.0
28.5
51.8
48.0
21.3
82
14
Artemi PanarinLAK · L
91.9
33.7
58.3
237.4
29.5
17.8
15.3
20.9
82
15
Kyle ConnorWPG · L
91.2
39.4
51.9
274.7
22.9
32.8
27.8
17.1
82
16
Matthew TkachukFLA · L
90.6
32.7
57.9
248.5
33.6
125.0
26.0
109.5
82
17
Sidney CrosbyPIT · C
90.5
34.5
55.9
223.4
27.1
77.0
39.9
46.1
82
18
Jason RobertsonDAL · L
88.5
40.3
48.2
263.0
33.9
58.7
37.0
24.9
82
19
Nick SuzukiMTL · C
87.8
28.0
59.8
178.9
34.5
74.3
64.3
24.6
82
20
Quinn HughesMIN · D
87.4
12.8
74.6
201.2
35.1
14.9
84.4
35.2
82
21
Martin NecasCOL · C
87.0
30.5
56.5
213.1
24.6
85.6
25.6
28.7
82
22
Jake GuentzelTBL · C
87.0
38.6
48.3
234.7
29.1
45.1
43.0
50.7
82
23
Clayton KellerUTA · R
86.4
28.5
57.9
227.0
28.7
14.6
33.4
34.3
82
24
Cale MakarCOL · D
86.2
24.9
61.3
234.1
32.4
46.3
135.5
23.2
82
25
Auston MatthewsTOR · C
86.0
42.9
43.1
326.8
23.4
78.2
105.4
23.4
82
26
Aleksander BarkovFLA · C
85.8
25.7
60.1
200.5
31.3
120.0
66.3
21.0
82
27
Robert ThomasSTL · C
85.2
27.7
57.5
144.8
21.1
18.3
49.4
31.3
82
28
Mark StoneVGK · R
84.5
32.0
52.5
173.6
30.3
64.3
58.5
20.3
82
29
Matt BoldyMIN · L
82.8
38.4
44.3
272.7
27.0
65.1
58.3
39.4
82
30
Zach WerenskiCBJ · D
82.5
22.0
60.5
281.2
22.1
28.8
118.3
23.9
82
31
Evan BouchardEDM · D
82.5
18.2
64.3
219.0
30.5
44.0
104.5
31.0
82
32
Brandon HagelTBL · L
81.4
37.1
44.4
221.7
11.6
61.6
49.4
68.3
82
33
Tage ThompsonBUF · C
80.6
41.0
39.6
275.1
23.5
85.3
41.8
46.1
82
34
Sam ReinhartFLA · C
80.2
40.0
40.2
221.0
29.4
92.4
61.8
21.4
82
35
Tim StützleOTT · C
80.2
29.2
50.9
191.4
28.9
133.4
45.2
40.2
82
36
Connor BedardCHI · C
79.6
30.2
49.4
241.3
26.2
44.4
34.0
59.3
82
37
Sebastian AhoCAR · C
78.7
30.0
48.7
206.8
25.6
78.6
29.0
45.5
82
38
Filip ForsbergNSH · L
77.9
38.3
39.6
268.6
26.6
135.3
40.4
37.6
82
39
Alex DeBrincatDET · R
77.1
37.6
39.5
266.5
24.4
47.3
38.2
25.3
82
40
Jesper BrattNJD · L
76.5
23.0
53.6
192.9
24.1
74.9
31.2
13.4
82
41
J.T. MillerNYR · C
76.3
25.2
51.1
177.3
26.7
176.3
49.6
50.2
82
42
Cole CaufieldMTL · R
75.9
41.6
34.2
255.3
26.2
61.5
22.4
12.4
82
43
Rasmus DahlinBUF · D
75.5
19.9
55.6
220.2
24.7
102.5
102.7
78.6
82
44
Lucas RaymondDET · L
75.1
26.1
49.0
177.5
27.8
48.0
30.1
22.5
82
45
Evgeni MalkinPIT · C
75.0
25.5
49.5
194.0
26.6
38.3
36.9
74.1
82
46
Mika ZibanejadNYR · C
74.6
29.3
45.3
211.3
30.8
79.4
50.4
18.8
82
47
Adam FoxNYR · D
74.6
13.0
61.6
145.2
30.3
42.0
122.8
34.4
82
48
Dylan LarkinDET · C
74.5
35.2
39.2
248.4
27.0
50.5
35.6
48.3
82
49
Adrian KempeLAK · R
74.0
35.9
38.1
237.1
17.5
121.7
38.6
55.0
82
50
Brad MarchandFLA · L
74.0
33.9
40.1
213.4
25.3
88.2
33.2
79.7
82

No consistency figure for points: it did not clear the nightly split-half-vs-Poisson gate. The gate withholds a figure both when a stat is measurably no better than chance and when the evidence is too split to call, and those are not separable from here — so read this as no published measure, not as a finding that points is inconsistent. Sort by another stat to see it where it holds. Measured 2026-08-21. The nightly job has not refreshed this since — it is the last completed measurement, not a current one.