Research
The questions this project has put to its NHL data and to the betting market. Each links to the page that answers it, with the method and the evidence beside the answer.
The model, against the results
- Who beat expectation, and how much of it should persist?
League-wide finishing and goaltending, measured against the xG model, season by season.
- Does finishing persist?
Yes, partly — it beat both simpler rules: so far a backtest on 2025-26, 483 projections graded. Nothing logged has come due yet.
The model, against the posted lines
- What does the model project for each skater, against the line a book posted?
The sheet: every game's projected distributions beside the posted lines, one date at a time.
Studies
- How well priced is the closing line?
The Pinnacle closing line on NHL player props, set against what the players went on to do. It needs no model.
- Does projection ordering hold up?
Whether the order of the projections carries information beyond the players ranked at the top, by statistic, season and rank.
Before reading any of it
How to read OddPuck: what the figures are, where they come from, and how the model was tested against the betting market.