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Insights

Where the numbers say something a scoring table does not: postseason production, finishing and goaltending against the xG model, and scoring on the power play.

Season
2025-262024-252023-242022-232021-22
Hottest finisherAnthony Mantha+14.9goals above expected · 33 on 18.1 expectedColdest finisherAnders Lee−13.0goals below expected · 19 on 32.0 expectedBest goaltendingLogan Thompson+41.4goals saved above expected · 2,461 attempts faced

Playoff scoring, 2025-26

Points in the postseason

The games every other board on this site leaves out, ranked on the total with games played on the row.

#
Skater
GP
G
A
PTS
P/GP
1
Mitch MarnerR
22
10
19
29
1.32
2
Jack EichelC
22
2
20
22
1.00
3
Jackson BlakeR
19
7
13
20
1.05
4
Taylor HallL
19
7
12
19
1.00
5
Brett HowdenC
22
14
4
18
0.82
6
Nikolaj EhlersL
18
8
10
18
1.00
7
Shea TheodoreD
22
6
12
18
0.82
8
Pavel DorofeyevR
22
12
4
16
0.73
9
Logan StankovenC
19
11
5
16
0.84
10
Nick SuzukiC
19
4
12
16
0.84
Why the total, not points per game — a per-game sort crowns a two-point sweep
A per-game sort with no minimum puts a two-point sweep above a twenty-nine-point run, and games played vary more than fivefold across a field decided by elimination. So the board ranks the total, and the games are on every row.

Finishing against expectation, 2025-26

How these boards are built — regular season only, and not comparable across seasons
Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts. League expected goals run 0.956 to 1.010 of actual goals by season, so totals are not comparable across seasons and each board ranks within its own. Boards sort on the total rather than the per-attempt rate, because a rate board with no minimum is a list of players with one attempt.

Above expected

Skaters who scored the most goals above what the model expected from their attempts.

#
Skater
GP
Att
G
xG
GAx
GAx / att
1
Anthony ManthaR
77
209
33
18.1
+14.9
+0.071
2
Morgan GeekieC
79
274
39
26.6
+12.4
+0.045
3
Cole CaufieldR
81
386
51
38.9
+12.1
+0.031
4
Filip ForsbergL
82
390
40
28.1
+11.9
+0.031
5
Steven StamkosC
82
306
42
31.5
+10.5
+0.034
6
Macklin CelebriniC
82
411
45
34.9
+10.1
+0.025
7
Cutter GauthierL
76
426
41
31.2
+9.8
+0.023
8
Matt BoldyL
75
396
42
32.4
+9.6
+0.024
9
Nikita KucherovR
76
378
44
34.5
+9.5
+0.025
10
Bobby McMannC
73
265
29
19.6
+9.4
+0.035

Below expected

The same column sorted the other way, because a board that ranks one direction only implies the other end is not a measurement.

#
Skater
GP
Att
G
xG
GAx
GAx / att
1
Anders LeeL
82
315
19
32.0
−13.0
−0.041
2
Timo MeierR
76
430
24
35.2
−11.2
−0.026
3
Tomas HertlC
77
321
24
35.2
−11.2
−0.035
4
Nazem KadriC
76
321
16
26.5
−10.5
−0.033
5
Andrew CoppC
74
185
9
19.3
−10.3
−0.056
6
Ross ColtonC
67
240
9
18.7
−9.7
−0.041
7
Mackie SamoskevichR
72
256
12
21.3
−9.3
−0.036
8
Jonathan DrouinL
58
139
4
13.1
−9.1
−0.066
9
William EklundL
75
247
15
23.7
−8.7
−0.035
10
Cole SillingerC
69
195
8
16.6
−8.6
−0.044

Goaltending against expectation, 2025-26

What the goalie boards count — unblocked attempts, not the box score's shots against
Attempts here are open-play and unblocked, deliberately not the box score's shots against, which counts a different set of pucks. Save percentage is not shown for the same reason: the game log already gives it over that other set.

Above expected

Goalies who conceded fewer goals than the model expected from the attempts they faced.

#
Goalie
GP
Att
GA
xGA
GSAx
GSAx / 100
1
Logan Thompson
58
2,461
140
181.4
+41.4
+1.68
2
Jeremy Swayman
55
2,428
146
179.3
+33.3
+1.37
3
Ilya Sorokin
55
2,324
144
177.1
+33.1
+1.42
4
Andrei Vasilevskiy
58
2,227
132
161.2
+29.2
+1.31
5
Scott Wedgewood
45
1,689
86
110.3
+24.3
+1.44
6
Igor Shesterkin
51
2,148
126
149.9
+23.9
+1.11
7
Jet Greaves
55
2,380
142
165.5
+23.5
+0.99
8
John Gibson
57
2,278
143
162.8
+19.8
+0.87
9
Jakub Dobes
43
1,817
117
136.3
+19.3
+1.06
10
Joel Hofer
46
1,950
114
133.1
+19.1
+0.98

Below expected

The same column sorted the other way; a goalie on a heavily outshot team can sit here on volume alone, which is why the attempts faced are on the row.

#
Goalie
GP
Att
GA
xGA
GSAx
GSAx / 100
1
Jordan Binnington
41
1,488
128
102.9
−25.1
−1.69
2
Leevi Meriläinen
20
666
64
45.1
−18.9
−2.84
3
Yaroslav Askarov
47
1,987
157
140.8
−16.2
−0.82
4
Kevin Lankinen
47
1,936
160
144.8
−15.2
−0.79
5
Sergei Bobrovsky
52
1,948
154
140.1
−13.9
−0.72
6
Adin Hill
27
931
76
62.6
−13.4
−1.44
7
Samuel Ersson
33
1,219
97
85.7
−11.3
−0.93
8
Jacob Markstrom
44
1,689
130
120.1
−9.9
−0.59
9
Jonas Johansson
25
999
78
68.6
−9.4
−0.94
10
Petr Mrazek
10
365
35
27.5
−7.5
−2.04

Power-play points, 2025-26

With the man advantage

Points recorded while the skater's side had the extra man, read from the on-ice strength state of every event.

#
Skater
G
A
PTS
SOG
1
Connor McDavidC
13
41
54
82
2
Nick SuzukiC
11
32
43
47
3
Wyatt JohnstonC
27
15
42
83
4
Leon DraisaitlC
16
26
42
70
5
Jason RobertsonL
15
26
41
71
7
Mika ZibanejadC
16
19
35
55
9
Quinn HughesD
2
32
34
42
Shots here — shots on goal, not the attempts on the finishing boards
The shots column on this board counts shots on goal. The finishing boards count open-play unblocked attempts, a larger population, so the two are not the same number and should not be compared.
Why no club is shown — the club we hold is today's, not the season's
We hold each player's CURRENT club, not the one they played for in the season a board describes. Among the top 50 finishers that would be wrong for 8 of 50 in 2025-26 and 29 of 50 in 2021-22, so the column is left off rather than shown wrong. Follow a name to the player's page for club and history. The club we hold, like every board on this page, is updated once a day.

Does finishing persist?

Yes, partly — it beat both simpler rules, so far on a backtest only: no live projection has been graded yet.

The finishing boards above show who out-scored the model. The projection says how much of a hot season should carry into the next, and this is where that forecast is graded, two ways that are not interchangeable.

Tested on 2025-26 — a season the rule never saw

a backtest, not a track record

483 of 490 projections scored · 7 unscoreable

The unscoreable ones are players who did not play 2025-26. They are counted rather than dropped — a rule that only looks good on the players who came back would otherwise look the same as one that works.

vs. assuming it all goes awaybetter

2.7% lower prediction error

A small margin is the honest outcome here, not a weak one — the rule keeps under a fifth of a hot season, so its forecast is close to this baseline by construction. A large number would be evidence of a bug.

average error 1.7634 against 1.8124 — a paired difference of −0.0490 [−0.0804, −0.0176]

vs. assuming last season repeatsbetter

18.3% lower prediction error

average error 1.7634 against 2.1593 — a paired difference of −0.3959 [−0.5184, −0.2734]

The live record

Nothing graded yet. Every projection is recorded on the day it is made, but none has come due yet — these are forecasts about next season, so the first ones can be graded once it has been played.

The difference from the backtest above matters. A backtest can be re-run until it flatters; a prediction recorded before the season it describes cannot be, because the data it will be scored against does not exist yet.