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Insights

Where the numbers say something a scoring table does not: postseason production, finishing and goaltending against the xG model, and scoring on the power play.

Season
2025-262024-252023-242022-232021-22
Hottest finisherTage Thompson+18.4goals above expected · 44 on 25.6 expectedColdest finisherBlake Coleman−10.7goals below expected · 15 on 25.7 expectedBest goaltendingConnor Hellebuyck+36.0goals saved above expected · 2,599 attempts faced

Playoff scoring, 2024-25

Points in the postseason

The games every other board on this site leaves out, ranked on the total with games played on the row.

#
Skater
GP
G
A
PTS
P/GP
1
Leon DraisaitlC
22
11
22
33
1.50
2
Connor McDavidC
22
7
26
33
1.50
3
Sam ReinhartC
21
11
12
23
1.10
4
Matthew TkachukL
23
8
15
23
1.00
5
Carter VerhaegheC
23
7
16
23
1.00
6
Evan BouchardD
22
7
16
23
1.05
7
Sam BennettC
23
15
7
22
0.96
8
Mikko RantanenR
18
9
13
22
1.22
9
Aleksander BarkovC
23
6
16
22
0.96
10
Brad MarchandL
23
10
10
20
0.87
Why the total, not points per game — a per-game sort crowns a two-point sweep
A per-game sort with no minimum puts a two-point sweep above a twenty-nine-point run, and games played vary more than fivefold across a field decided by elimination. So the board ranks the total, and the games are on every row.

Finishing against expectation, 2024-25

How these boards are built — regular season only, and not comparable across seasons
Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts. League expected goals run 0.956 to 1.010 of actual goals by season, so totals are not comparable across seasons and each board ranks within its own. Boards sort on the total rather than the per-attempt rate, because a rate board with no minimum is a list of players with one attempt.

Above expected

Skaters who scored the most goals above what the model expected from their attempts.

#
Skater
GP
Att
G
xG
GAx
GAx / att
1
Tage ThompsonC
74
355
44
25.6
+18.4
+0.052
2
Alex OvechkinL
64
355
44
27.2
+16.8
+0.047
3
Leon DraisaitlC
71
340
52
35.3
+16.7
+0.049
4
William NylanderR
80
352
45
31.5
+13.5
+0.038
5
Morgan GeekieC
73
229
33
21.7
+11.3
+0.049
6
Brayden PointC
75
275
42
30.8
+11.2
+0.041
7
Mark ScheifeleC
80
275
39
28.5
+10.5
+0.038
8
Ryan DonatoC
77
261
31
20.6
+10.4
+0.040
9
Kent JohnsonC
64
180
24
14.0
+10.0
+0.056
10
Jordan KyrouR
79
328
36
26.4
+9.6
+0.029

Below expected

The same column sorted the other way, because a board that ranks one direction only implies the other end is not a measurement.

#
Skater
GP
Att
G
xG
GAx
GAx / att
1
Blake ColemanL
78
292
15
25.7
−10.7
−0.037
2
Zach HymanL
72
309
27
37.3
−10.3
−0.033
3
Logan StankovenC
74
275
14
23.7
−9.7
−0.035
4
Drew O'ConnorL
76
197
9
18.4
−9.4
−0.048
5
Martin PospisilC
65
173
4
12.4
−8.4
−0.049
6
Frank VatranoR
76
335
21
29.3
−8.3
−0.025
7
Carter VerhaegheC
80
349
20
28.2
−8.2
−0.023
8
Joel FarabeeL
70
201
11
18.8
−7.8
−0.039
9
Ryan StromeC
77
211
10
17.7
−7.7
−0.036
10
Nick SchmaltzC
80
264
20
27.1
−7.1
−0.027

Goaltending against expectation, 2024-25

What the goalie boards count — unblocked attempts, not the box score's shots against
Attempts here are open-play and unblocked, deliberately not the box score's shots against, which counts a different set of pucks. Save percentage is not shown for the same reason: the game log already gives it over that other set.

Above expected

Goalies who conceded fewer goals than the model expected from the attempts they faced.

#
Goalie
GP
Att
GA
xGA
GSAx
GSAx / 100
1
Connor Hellebuyck
63
2,599
125
161.0
+36.0
+1.39
2
Samuel Montembeault
62
2,584
166
191.9
+25.9
+1.00
3
Darcy Kuemper
50
1,952
100
123.2
+23.2
+1.19
4
Andrei Vasilevskiy
63
2,496
136
159.1
+23.1
+0.93
5
Logan Thompson
43
1,814
105
127.5
+22.5
+1.24
6
Anthony Stolarz
34
1,501
71
93.1
+22.1
+1.48
7
Jake Oettinger
58
2,431
146
165.2
+19.2
+0.79
8
Igor Shesterkin
61
2,610
167
184.9
+17.9
+0.69
9
Karel Vejmelka
58
2,229
144
161.3
+17.3
+0.78
10
Dustin Wolf
53
2,261
140
154.9
+14.9
+0.66

Below expected

The same column sorted the other way; a goalie on a heavily outshot team can sit here on volume alone, which is why the attempts faced are on the row.

#
Goalie
GP
Att
GA
xGA
GSAx
GSAx / 100
1
Alexandar Georgiev
49
1,934
165
141.6
−23.4
−1.21
2
Samuel Ersson
47
1,759
136
113.2
−22.8
−1.29
3
Ivan Fedotov
26
937
75
58.2
−16.8
−1.80
4
Philipp Grubauer
26
1,079
84
67.3
−16.7
−1.55
5
David Rittich
34
1,164
88
72.2
−15.8
−1.36
6
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
55
2,272
169
154.1
−14.9
−0.66
7
Petr Mrazek
38
1,550
116
101.6
−14.4
−0.93
8
Justus Annunen
34
1,217
95
80.8
−14.2
−1.16
9
Jeremy Swayman
58
2,447
175
162.8
−12.2
−0.50
10
Elvis Merzlikins
53
2,331
168
155.9
−12.1
−0.52

Power-play points, 2024-25

With the man advantage

Points recorded while the skater's side had the extra man, read from the on-ice strength state of every event.

#
Skater
G
A
PTS
SOG
3
Martin NecasC
12
25
37
54
4
Clayton KellerR
10
27
37
48
5
Lucas RaymondL
8
29
37
44
6
Cale MakarD
12
23
35
62
7
Dylan StromeC
9
25
34
37
8
Jack EichelC
5
29
34
57
9
Jesper BrattL
4
30
34
34
10
Tim StützleC
5
28
33
34
Shots here — shots on goal, not the attempts on the finishing boards
The shots column on this board counts shots on goal. The finishing boards count open-play unblocked attempts, a larger population, so the two are not the same number and should not be compared.
Why no club is shown — the club we hold is today's, not the season's
We hold each player's CURRENT club, not the one they played for in the season a board describes. Among the top 50 finishers that would be wrong for 8 of 50 in 2025-26 and 29 of 50 in 2021-22, so the column is left off rather than shown wrong. Follow a name to the player's page for club and history. The club we hold, like every board on this page, is updated once a day.

Does finishing persist?

Yes, partly — it beat both simpler rules, so far on a backtest only: no live projection has been graded yet.

The finishing boards above show who out-scored the model. The projection says how much of a hot season should carry into the next, and this is where that forecast is graded, two ways that are not interchangeable.

Tested on 2025-26 — a season the rule never saw

a backtest, not a track record

483 of 490 projections scored · 7 unscoreable

The unscoreable ones are players who did not play 2025-26. They are counted rather than dropped — a rule that only looks good on the players who came back would otherwise look the same as one that works.

vs. assuming it all goes awaybetter

2.7% lower prediction error

A small margin is the honest outcome here, not a weak one — the rule keeps under a fifth of a hot season, so its forecast is close to this baseline by construction. A large number would be evidence of a bug.

average error 1.7634 against 1.8124 — a paired difference of −0.0490 [−0.0804, −0.0176]

vs. assuming last season repeatsbetter

18.3% lower prediction error

average error 1.7634 against 2.1593 — a paired difference of −0.3959 [−0.5184, −0.2734]

The live record

Nothing graded yet. Every projection is recorded on the day it is made, but none has come due yet — these are forecasts about next season, so the first ones can be graded once it has been played.

The difference from the backtest above matters. A backtest can be re-run until it flatters; a prediction recorded before the season it describes cannot be, because the data it will be scored against does not exist yet.