Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 396 game sample- PTS
- 86.4
- SOG
- 227.0
- G
- 28.5
- A
- 57.9
- PPP
- 28.7
- HIT
- 14.6
- BLK
- 33.4
- PIM
- 34.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 396 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 396 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 396 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 1.06
- G
- 0.35
- A
- 0.71
- SOG
- 2.78
- PPP
- 0.35
- HIT
- 0.17
- BLK
- 0.40
- PIM
- 0.42
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 26 | 62 | 88 | 1.07 | 225 | 19:05 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 30 | 60 | 90 | 1.11 | 218 | 19:07 |
| 2023-24 | 78 | 33 | 43 | 76 | 0.97 | 228 | 19:15 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 37 | 49 | 86 | 1.05 | 223 | 20:45 |
| 2021-22 | 67 | 28 | 35 | 63 | 0.94 | 177 | 20:08 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.83 | 21 | 21:29 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | vs VGKPO | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 20:40 |
| Apr 29 | @ VGKPO | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29:40 |
| Apr 27 | vs VGKPO | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 25:40 |
| Apr 24 | vs VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:33 |
| Apr 21 | @ VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 17:34 |
| Apr 19 | @ VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19:49 |
| Apr 16 | vs STL | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:14 |
| Apr 14 | vs WPG | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:59 |
| Apr 12 | @ CGY | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 19:21 |
| Apr 11 | vs CAR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:08 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 30.0 | 26 | minus 4.0 goals above expected | 82 | 338 |
| 2024-25 | 28.9 | 30 | plus 1.1 goals above expected | 81 | 333 |
| 2023-24 | 25.8 | 33 | plus 7.2 goals above expected | 78 | 331 |
| 2022-23 | 25.4 | 37 | plus 11.6 goals above expected | 80 | 302 |
| 2021-22 | 20.4 | 28 | plus 7.6 goals above expected | 65 | 228 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 23 goals, 38 assists, 61 points | 3 goals, 24 assists, 27 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 20 goals, 33 assists, 53 points | 10 goals, 27 assists, 37 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 24 goals, 22 assists, 46 points | 9 goals, 21 assists, 30 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 30 goals, 35 assists, 65 points | 6 goals, 14 assists, 20 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 22 goals, 28 assists, 50 points | 5 goals, 6 assists, 11 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
Shot locations
338 attempts · 26 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.