Wed, Sep 16, 2026

Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

NSH Nashville Predators

vsANAAnaheim Ducks

Last gameApr 16 · 8:00 PM ET

The model's read

a disagreement, not a correction

The model and the standings agree on NSH

In points

#23/32

what happened

By our rating

#23/32

xG-Elo, walk-forward

Gap

rank places

The rating is built from expected-goal margin, game by game, and never sees the standings. A gap means the chances a club generated and allowed point somewhere different from where its points did. Where the model disagrees most →

Record

82 games · regular season

W–L–OTL: 38 wins, 34 regulation losses, 10 overtime losses
Points: 86
Points rank: 23/32
Goal diff: −22

Strength rating

xG-Elo · walk-forward

Rating: 1481
League rank: 23/32
Games: 82

1500 is the baseline every club starts from and regresses toward between seasons, so above it is stronger than an average team and below it weaker. The rating is driven by model expected-goals margin rather than by results, which is why it can disagree with the standings — that disagreement is the reading at the top of this page.

Last 10 · results

LApr 16vsANA4–5

LApr 13vsSJS2–3

WApr 11vsMIN2–1

LApr 9@UTA1–4

WApr 7@ANA5–0

OTLApr 6@LAK2–3SO

WApr 4@SJS6–3

WApr 2@LAK5–4SO

LMar 29@TBL2–3

LMar 28vsMTL1–4

Current roster · per-game rates

29 skaters · 3 goalies

Five-season recency-weighted per-game rates · Sample = the games each rate rests on

Forwards	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Filip Forsberg	9	0.95	0.47	0.48	3.29	375
Steven Stamkos	91	0.82	0.46	0.36	2.57	439
Ryan O'Reilly	90	0.82	0.30	0.52	1.96	402
Cole O'Hara	19	1.00	0.00	1.00	1.00	1
Jonathan Marchessault	81	0.65	0.29	0.36	2.59	403
Luke Evangelista	77	0.60	0.16	0.44	2.12	259
Mavrik Bourque	22	0.43	0.21	0.22	1.63	166
Matthew Wood	71	0.41	0.23	0.18	1.45	77
Ross Colton	20	0.40	0.18	0.22	1.99	426
Alexander Kerfoot	15	0.40	0.15	0.24	1.15	385
Brady Martin	44	0.33	0.00	0.33	0.67	3
Jack Drury	18	0.32	0.12	0.19	1.28	312
Nils Hoglander	21	0.28	0.13	0.15	1.16	286
Chase Bradley	38	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2
Joakim Kemell	25	0.18	0.06	0.12	0.94	18
Reid Schaefer	49	0.17	0.13	0.04	0.83	47
Adam Edstrom	84	0.16	0.09	0.06	0.83	97
Ozzy Wiesblatt	89	0.13	0.02	0.11	0.64	45
Jake Lucchini	21	0.11	0.05	0.06	0.64	54

Defence	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Roman Josi	59	0.84	0.21	0.63	2.91	360
Ryan Ufko	85	0.59	0.11	0.49	0.59	19
Brady Skjei	76	0.39	0.09	0.30	1.72	447
Adam Wilsby	83	0.27	0.02	0.24	1.09	81
Hunter Skinner	48	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1
Nick Perbix	48	0.22	0.05	0.17	0.97	312
Nicolas Hague	41	0.21	0.05	0.16	1.09	370
Justin Barron	20	0.21	0.05	0.15	0.88	208
Ilya Lyubushkin	46	0.18	0.01	0.16	0.64	382
Jack Ahcan	15	0.13	0.00	0.13	0.57	22

Goalies	#	SV%	GA	SV	SA	TOI	Sample
Juuse Saros	74	.8987	2.91	25.8	28.7	58:02	318
Justus Annunen	29	.9006	2.52	22.7	25.2	53:32	80
Matt Murray	32	.9091	2.00	20.0	22.0	59:24	4

How these rates are built — club is the player's current one; the rates span five seasons

Club membership is the NHL's current one, refreshed nightly — a player traded mid-season appears under the club he is with now, while the rates beside him span five seasons wherever he played them. Recency-weighted per-game averages; Sample is the games they rest on. Skaters are ordered by a rate shrunk toward the league average in proportion to how little a player has played, so a one-game sample does not out-rank a career — the figures shown are the unshrunk ones, and for anyone with a real sample the two are the same number. Save percentage is total saves over total shots, weighted — not the average of per-game save percentages, which would count a two-shot relief appearance as heavily as a forty-shot start.

Best cap efficiency · points per $1M

2026-27 cap · 2025-26 production

Matthew WoodR71 gp$0.95M1 yrRFA3031.6

Adam WilsbyD58 gp$0.85M1 yrRFA1618.8

Luke EvangelistaR81 gp$3.00M1 yrRFA5618.7

Ryan O'ReillyC81 gp$4.50M1 yrUFA7416.4

Ryan UfkoD18 gp$0.94M1 yrRFA1111.7

A player measured against the season that earned his contract looks expensive, so recent signings sit low and entry-level deals sit high — by construction. All 32 clubs.

Markets · Apr 16 · modeled projections

0 G · sorted by projection

No G lines were captured for this game.