Wed, Sep 16, 2026

Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

MIN Minnesota Wild

@COLColorado Avalanche

Last gameMay 13 · 8:00 PM ET

The model's read

a disagreement, not a correction

MIN's record is better than the model rates them

In points

#7/32

what happened

By our rating

#8/32

xG-Elo, walk-forward

Gap

-1

rank places

The rating is built from expected-goal margin, game by game, and never sees the standings. A gap means the chances a club generated and allowed point somewhere different from where its points did. Where the model disagrees most →

Record

82 games · regular season

W–L–OTL: 46 wins, 24 regulation losses, 12 overtime losses
Points: 104
Points rank: 7/32
Goal diff: +32

Strength rating

xG-Elo · walk-forward

Rating: 1523
League rank: 8/32
Games: 82

1500 is the baseline every club starts from and regresses toward between seasons, so above it is stronger than an average team and below it weaker. The rating is driven by model expected-goals margin rather than by results, which is why it can disagree with the standings — that disagreement is the reading at the top of this page.

Last 10 · results

OTLMay 13@COL3–4OT

LMay 11vsCOL2–5

WMay 9vsCOL5–1

LMay 5@COL2–5

LMay 3@COL6–9

WApr 30vsDAL5–2

WApr 28@DAL4–2

WApr 25vsDAL3–2OT

OTLApr 22vsDAL3–4OT

LApr 20@DAL2–4

Current roster · per-game rates

29 skaters · 3 goalies

Five-season recency-weighted per-game rates · Sample = the games each rate rests on

Forwards	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Kirill Kaprizov	97	1.22	0.58	0.64	3.44	371
Matt Boldy	12	1.01	0.47	0.54	3.34	390
Joel Eriksson Ek	14	0.73	0.30	0.42	3.01	367
Ryan Hartman	38	0.56	0.27	0.29	2.36	388
Blake Coleman	20	0.52	0.26	0.25	2.47	404
Bobby Brink	10	0.46	0.19	0.27	1.42	218
Maxim Shabanov	49	0.41	0.11	0.30	1.27	44
Danila Yurov	22	0.37	0.16	0.21	1.09	82
Nick Foligno	71	0.36	0.14	0.22	1.21	354
Marcus Foligno	17	0.32	0.17	0.15	1.13	356
Yakov Trenin	13	0.25	0.09	0.16	1.21	420
Nico Sturm	78	0.25	0.11	0.15	0.96	351
Mason Shaw	15	0.23	0.09	0.14	1.37	82
Hunter Haight	37	0.22	0.11	0.11	1.44	9
Michael McCarron	47	0.23	0.11	0.12	1.28	325
Justin Kirkland	23	0.19	0.06	0.13	0.51	50
Dylan Gambrell	18	0.15	0.06	0.09	0.82	123
Tyler Pitlick	19	0.11	0.06	0.04	0.85	166

Defence	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Quinn Hughes	43	1.07	0.16	0.91	2.46	402
Brock Faber	7	0.56	0.17	0.40	1.94	265
Jared Spurgeon	46	0.33	0.08	0.25	1.33	334
Jonas Brodin	25	0.32	0.07	0.26	1.37	330
Olli Maatta	3	0.28	0.04	0.24	0.83	343
Matt Kiersted	26	0.21	0.02	0.19	0.64	38
Carson Lambos	28	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	1
Daemon Hunt	48	0.18	0.00	0.18	0.59	50
Zach Bogosian	24	0.16	0.04	0.12	0.89	323
David Spacek	82	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2
Viking Gustafsson Nyberg	6	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2

Goalies	#	SV%	GA	SV	SA	TOI	Sample
Calvin Pickard	31	.8890	2.69	21.6	24.3	53:17	91
Filip Gustavsson	32	.9074	2.63	25.7	28.4	58:52	222
Jesper Wallstedt	30	.9124	2.64	27.3	29.9	58:51	50

How these rates are built — club is the player's current one; the rates span five seasons

Club membership is the NHL's current one, refreshed nightly — a player traded mid-season appears under the club he is with now, while the rates beside him span five seasons wherever he played them. Recency-weighted per-game averages; Sample is the games they rest on. Skaters are ordered by a rate shrunk toward the league average in proportion to how little a player has played, so a one-game sample does not out-rank a career — the figures shown are the unshrunk ones, and for anyone with a real sample the two are the same number. Save percentage is total saves over total shots, weighted — not the average of per-game save percentages, which would count a two-shot relief appearance as heavily as a forty-shot start.

Best cap efficiency · points per $1M

2026-27 cap · 2025-26 production

Danila YurovR73 gp$0.97M2 yrsRFA2727.8

Nick FolignoL54 gp$0.90M1 yrUFA1516.7

Blake ColemanL69 gp$2.45M1 yrUFA3514.3

Matt BoldyL76 gp$7.00M4 yrsUFA8512.1

Maxim ShabanovR44 gp$1.60M1 yrRFA1811.3

A player measured against the season that earned his contract looks expensive, so recent signings sit low and entry-level deals sit high — by construction. All 32 clubs.

Markets · May 13 · modeled projections

0 G · sorted by projection

No G lines were captured for this game.