Wed, Sep 16, 2026

Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

CGY Calgary Flames

vsLAKLos Angeles Kings

Last gameApr 16 · 9:00 PM ET

The model's read

a disagreement, not a correction

The model and the standings agree on CGY

In points

#29/32

what happened

By our rating

#29/32

xG-Elo, walk-forward

Gap

rank places

The rating is built from expected-goal margin, game by game, and never sees the standings. A gap means the chances a club generated and allowed point somewhere different from where its points did. Where the model disagrees most →

Record

82 games · regular season

W–L–OTL: 34 wins, 39 regulation losses, 9 overtime losses
Points: 77
Points rank: 29/32
Goal diff: −47

Strength rating

xG-Elo · walk-forward

Rating: 1453
League rank: 29/32
Games: 82

1500 is the baseline every club starts from and regresses toward between seasons, so above it is stronger than an average team and below it weaker. The rating is driven by model expected-goals margin rather than by results, which is why it can disagree with the standings — that disagreement is the reading at the top of this page.

Last 10 · results

WApr 16vsLAK3–1

LApr 14vsCOL1–3

WApr 12vsUTA4–1

LApr 11@SEA1–4

LApr 9@COL1–3

OTLApr 7@DAL3–4OT

WApr 4@ANA5–3

LApr 2@VGK3–6

LMar 30@COL2–9

WMar 28vsVAN7–3

Current roster · per-game rates

35 skaters · 3 goalies

Five-season recency-weighted per-game rates · Sample = the games each rate rests on

Forwards	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Jonathan Huberdeau	10	0.66	0.24	0.42	1.79	381
Matt Coronato	27	0.56	0.24	0.31	2.38	192
Matvei Gridin	92	0.54	0.16	0.38	1.89	37
Morgan Frost	16	0.51	0.23	0.28	1.76	370
Mikael Backlund	11	0.50	0.20	0.30	2.39	416
Ryan Strome	22	0.47	0.15	0.32	1.46	388
Joel Farabee	86	0.45	0.22	0.23	1.84	390
Yegor Sharangovich	17	0.44	0.23	0.21	1.86	387
Connor Zary	47	0.40	0.19	0.21	1.61	191
Rory Kerins	6	0.31	0.00	0.31	0.38	9
Martin Pospisil	76	0.27	0.06	0.21	1.34	166
Maxim Tsyplakov	72	0.25	0.08	0.17	1.14	126
Adam Klapka	43	0.24	0.10	0.15	1.07	116
Dryden Hunt	15	0.22	0.07	0.16	1.07	152
Sam Morton	45	0.14	0.14	0.00	1.00	4
Tyson Gross	39	0.17	0.17	0.00	0.83	6
Samuel Honzek	29	0.20	0.10	0.10	1.22	23
Aydar Suniev	36	0.15	0.00	0.15	1.46	7
Brennan Othmann	78	0.13	0.07	0.07	0.86	44
William Stromgren	65	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.67	3
Ben Jones	64	0.07	0.02	0.05	0.93	56

Defence	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Jake Livingstone	23	0.20	0.00	0.20	0.60	5
Simon Nemec	71	0.34	0.13	0.21	1.37	159
Mike Benning	20	0.33	0.11	0.22	0.83	18
Zayne Parekh	19	0.25	0.12	0.13	1.33	38
Jake Middleton	55	0.24	0.05	0.19	0.99	396
Kevin Bahl	7	0.23	0.04	0.19	0.85	301
Yan Kuznetsov	37	0.21	0.07	0.14	1.13	58
Zach Whitecloud	28	0.21	0.04	0.17	0.91	370
Hunter Brzustewicz	48	0.20	0.06	0.14	0.99	35
Nikita Okhotiuk	28	0.17	0.03	0.14	0.97	67
Brayden Pachal	94	0.16	0.03	0.13	0.81	178
Joel Hanley	44	0.12	0.01	0.11	0.64	253
Andreas Englund	8	0.10	0.02	0.08	0.51	172
Abram Wiebe	52	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4

Goalies	#	SV%	GA	SV	SA	TOI	Sample
Dustin Wolf	32	.9023	2.74	25.2	27.9	56:44	128
Devin Cooley	1	.9070	2.56	25.0	27.5	55:11	37
Arsenii Sergeev	40	.9643	1.00	27.0	28.0	60:00	1

How these rates are built — club is the player's current one; the rates span five seasons

Club membership is the NHL's current one, refreshed nightly — a player traded mid-season appears under the club he is with now, while the rates beside him span five seasons wherever he played them. Recency-weighted per-game averages; Sample is the games they rest on. Skaters are ordered by a rate shrunk toward the league average in proportion to how little a player has played, so a one-game sample does not out-rank a career — the figures shown are the unshrunk ones, and for anyone with a real sample the two are the same number. Save percentage is total saves over total shots, weighted — not the average of per-game save percentages, which would count a two-shot relief appearance as heavily as a forty-shot start.

Best cap efficiency · points per $1M

2026-27 cap · 2025-26 production

Matvei GridinR37 gp$0.95M2 yrsRFA2021.0

Yan KuznetsovD57 gp$0.81M1 yrUFA1214.8

Adam KlapkaR79 gp$1.25M1 yrRFA1814.4

Mikael BacklundC82 gp$3.25M2 yrsUFA4313.2

Morgan FrostC82 gp$4.38M1 yrUFA439.8

A player measured against the season that earned his contract looks expensive, so recent signings sit low and entry-level deals sit high — by construction. All 32 clubs.

Markets · Apr 16 · modeled projections

0 G · sorted by projection

No G lines were captured for this game.