PHI Philadelphia Flyers

vsCARCarolina Hurricanes

Last gameMay 9 · 6:00 PM ET

The model's read

a disagreement, not a correction

The model rates PHI higher than the standings do

In points

#11/32

what happened

By our rating

#5/32

xG-Elo, walk-forward

Gap

rank places

The rating is built from expected-goal margin, game by game, and never sees the standings. A gap means the chances a club generated and allowed point somewhere different from where its points did. Where the model disagrees most →

Record

82 games · regular season

W–L–OTL: 43 wins, 27 regulation losses, 12 overtime losses
Points: 98
Points rank: 11/32
Goal diff: +7

Strength rating

xG-Elo · walk-forward

Rating: 1534
League rank: 5/32
Games: 82

1500 is the baseline every club starts from and regresses toward between seasons, so above it is stronger than an average team and below it weaker. The rating is driven by model expected-goals margin rather than by results, which is why it can disagree with the standings — that disagreement is the reading at the top of this page.

Last 10 · results

OTLMay 9vsCAR2–3OT

LMay 7vsCAR1–4

OTLMay 4@CAR2–3OT

LMay 2@CAR0–3

WApr 29vsPIT1–0OT

LApr 27@PIT2–3

LApr 25vsPIT2–4

WApr 22vsPIT5–2

WApr 20@PIT3–0

WApr 18@PIT3–2

Current roster · per-game rates

32 skaters · 3 goalies

Five-season recency-weighted per-game rates · Sample = the games each rate rests on

Forwards	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Travis Konecny	11	0.87	0.33	0.54	2.34	384
Porter Martone	94	0.79	0.32	0.47	2.89	19
Trevor Zegras	46	0.74	0.28	0.46	1.97	335
Matvei Michkov	39	0.65	0.26	0.39	2.14	169
Owen Tippett	74	0.60	0.32	0.28	2.72	382
Christian Dvorak	22	0.53	0.18	0.34	1.62	327
Noah Cates	27	0.51	0.20	0.32	1.50	325
Sean Couturier	14	0.49	0.16	0.33	1.84	270
Tyson Foerster	71	0.49	0.32	0.17	1.91	205
Alex Bump	20	0.48	0.30	0.17	1.43	23
Denver Barkey	52	0.36	0.11	0.25	0.98	53
Devin Kaplan	68	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1
Noel Acciari	55	0.27	0.13	0.13	1.22	324
Carl Grundstrom	91	0.24	0.14	0.10	1.42	284
Nikita Grebenkin	29	0.24	0.07	0.17	0.56	62
Zachary Aston-Reese	27	0.20	0.07	0.13	1.03	261
Nolan Foote	25	0.12	0.09	0.03	1.02	36
Jacob Gaucher	78	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.92	8
Jack Studnicka	53	0.05	0.02	0.02	0.97	104
Jett Luchanko	17	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.36	9

Defence	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Oliver Bonk	59	1.00	0.50	0.50	0.50	2
Hunter McDonald	75	1.00	0.00	1.00	0.00	1
Travis Sanheim	6	0.42	0.12	0.30	1.41	415
Jamie Drysdale	9	0.37	0.11	0.26	1.25	281
Cam York	8	0.32	0.07	0.25	1.23	317
Rasmus Ristolainen	55	0.31	0.04	0.26	1.45	288
Helge Grans	3	0.17	0.00	0.17	0.83	6
Cam Dineen	55	0.11	0.00	0.11	1.76	38
Nick Seeler	24	0.17	0.05	0.12	1.13	358
Ty Murchison	96	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.33	3
Simon Benoit	2	0.10	0.01	0.09	0.79	366
David Jiricek	5	0.09	0.02	0.08	0.71	85

Goalies	#	SV%	GA	SV	SA	TOI	Sample
Dan Vladar	80	.9044	2.48	23.4	25.9	58:19	163
Joseph Woll	60	.9028	2.95	27.3	30.3	57:24	131
Aleksei Kolosov	35	.8600	2.80	17.2	20.0	45:41	21

How these rates are built — club is the player's current one; the rates span five seasons

Club membership is the NHL's current one, refreshed nightly — a player traded mid-season appears under the club he is with now, while the rates beside him span five seasons wherever he played them. Recency-weighted per-game averages; Sample is the games they rest on. Skaters are ordered by a rate shrunk toward the league average in proportion to how little a player has played, so a one-game sample does not out-rank a career — the figures shown are the unshrunk ones, and for anyone with a real sample the two are the same number. Save percentage is total saves over total shots, weighted — not the average of per-game save percentages, which would count a two-shot relief appearance as heavily as a forty-shot start.

Best cap efficiency · points per $1M

2026-27 cap · 2025-26 production

Matvei MichkovR81 gp$0.95M1 yrRFA5153.7

Denver BarkeyC43 gp$0.93M2 yrsRFA1718.4

Carl GrundstromR47 gp$1.00M1 yrUFA1313.0

Nikita GrebenkinR55 gp$1.10M2 yrsRFA1412.7

Noah CatesL82 gp$4.00M3 yrsUFA4711.8

A player measured against the season that earned his contract looks expensive, so recent signings sit low and entry-level deals sit high — by construction. All 32 clubs.

Markets · May 9 · modeled projections

0 G · sorted by projection

No G lines were captured for this game.