Wed, Sep 16, 2026

Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

WSH Washington Capitals

@CBJColumbus Blue Jackets

Last gameApr 14 · 7:00 PM ET

The model's read

a disagreement, not a correction

WSH's record is better than the model rates them

In points

#12/32

what happened

By our rating

#22/32

xG-Elo, walk-forward

Gap

-10

rank places

The rating is built from expected-goal margin, game by game, and never sees the standings. A gap means the chances a club generated and allowed point somewhere different from where its points did. Where the model disagrees most →

Record

82 games · regular season

W–L–OTL: 43 wins, 30 regulation losses, 9 overtime losses
Points: 95
Points rank: 12/32
Goal diff: +19

Strength rating

xG-Elo · walk-forward

Rating: 1491
League rank: 22/32
Games: 82

1500 is the baseline every club starts from and regresses toward between seasons, so above it is stronger than an average team and below it weaker. The rating is driven by model expected-goals margin rather than by results, which is why it can disagree with the standings — that disagreement is the reading at the top of this page.

Last 10 · results

WApr 14@CBJ2–1

WApr 12vsPIT3–0

WApr 11@PIT6–3

WApr 8@TOR4–0

LApr 5@NYR1–8

WApr 4vsBUF6–2

LApr 2@NJD3–7

WMar 31vsPHI6–4

WMar 28@VGK5–4SO

WMar 26@UTA7–4

Current roster · per-game rates

28 skaters · 3 goalies

Five-season recency-weighted per-game rates · Sample = the games each rate rests on

Forwards	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Ilya Protas	62	1.00	0.25	0.75	1.75	4
Alex Ovechkin	8	0.87	0.47	0.40	3.28	396
Dylan Strome	17	0.82	0.28	0.54	1.83	408
Alex Tuch	89	0.81	0.40	0.41	2.58	373
Tom Wilson	43	0.78	0.38	0.39	2.13	353
Jordan Kyrou	25	0.75	0.34	0.40	2.71	408
Pierre-Luc Dubois	80	0.68	0.22	0.46	1.78	367
Aliaksei Protas	21	0.66	0.29	0.36	1.87	331
Boone Jenner	22	0.61	0.25	0.36	2.27	278
Ryan Leonard	9	0.55	0.25	0.31	2.01	92
Justin Sourdif	34	0.45	0.20	0.25	1.38	82
Ethen Frank	53	0.37	0.19	0.18	1.39	86
Anthony Beauvillier	72	0.35	0.18	0.17	1.89	396
Jonny Brodzinski	76	0.31	0.14	0.17	1.29	206
Ivan Miroshnichenko	63	0.24	0.11	0.13	0.98	53
Bogdan Trineyev	87	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.50	2
Josh Dunne	40	0.11	0.03	0.08	0.82	46

Defence	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Cole Hutson	44	0.71	0.21	0.50	1.57	14
Jakob Chychrun	6	0.67	0.28	0.39	2.62	341
Rasmus Sandin	38	0.38	0.06	0.31	1.13	356
Louie Belpedio	—	0.33	0.17	0.17	1.00	12
Martin Fehérváry	42	0.31	0.07	0.24	0.95	384
Matt Roy	3	0.28	0.04	0.24	1.30	406
Timothy Liljegren	27	0.27	0.05	0.21	1.12	311
Jacob MacDonald	4	0.20	0.12	0.08	1.40	100
Justin Holl	4	0.16	0.03	0.12	0.61	282
Vincent Desharnais	73	0.11	0.01	0.10	0.58	246
Dylan McIlrath	52	0.06	0.00	0.06	0.44	43

Goalies	#	SV%	GA	SV	SA	TOI	Sample
Charlie Lindgren	79	.8929	2.93	24.3	27.2	57:47	151
Logan Thompson	48	.9117	2.45	25.3	27.7	59:06	217
Clay Stevenson	33	.9125	2.33	24.3	26.7	59:57	5

How these rates are built — club is the player's current one; the rates span five seasons

Club membership is the NHL's current one, refreshed nightly — a player traded mid-season appears under the club he is with now, while the rates beside him span five seasons wherever he played them. Recency-weighted per-game averages; Sample is the games they rest on. Skaters are ordered by a rate shrunk toward the league average in proportion to how little a player has played, so a one-game sample does not out-rank a career — the figures shown are the unshrunk ones, and for anyone with a real sample the two are the same number. Save percentage is total saves over total shots, weighted — not the average of per-game save percentages, which would count a two-shot relief appearance as heavily as a forty-shot start.

Best cap efficiency · points per $1M

2026-27 cap · 2025-26 production

Ryan LeonardR75 gp$0.95M1 yrRFA4547.4

Justin SourdifC78 gp$0.82M1 yrRFA3542.4

Jonny BrodzinskiC55 gp$0.85M1 yrUFA1618.8

Aliaksei ProtasL76 gp$3.38M3 yrsUFA5215.4

Alex OvechkinL82 gp$4.25M1 yrUFA6415.1

A player measured against the season that earned his contract looks expensive, so recent signings sit low and entry-level deals sit high — by construction. All 32 clubs.

Markets · Apr 14 · modeled projections

0 G · sorted by projection

No G lines were captured for this game.