Pool: every defenceman who played in those seasons · Sample: 57 games
No production figure in the top quarter of his pool. Top tenth in hits, which describes his role rather than his quality.
Production
Production: percentile among 516 defencemen, and the adjusted per-game rate it was computed from
Stat
0 · 50 · 100
Pctl
Adjusted per game
Points
27
0.20
Goals
0
0.01
Assists
46
0.19
Shots on goal
10
0.72
Power-play points
21
0.00
Style and role
Style and role: percentile among 516 defencemen, and the adjusted per-game rate it was computed from
Stat
0 · 50 · 100
Pctl
Adjusted per game
Hits
93
2.07
Blocked shots
55
1.20
Penalty minutes
56
0.46
Further right means more, not better: hits, blocked shots and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Skating
Skating: the NHL’s percentile among defencemen, and the 2026-27 figure it ranks
Stat
0 · 50 · 100
Pctl
2026-27
Top speed
29
20.60 mph
Bursts over 20 mph
36
3
From the NHL’s puck and player tracking, 2026-27, 4 games, as of Oct 26. The percentile is the NHL’s own, among defencemen. Bursts are a season count and top speed a season high, so both rise with games played. The NHL’s average for defencemen: 21.05 mph and 6.0 bursts.
What adjusted per game means — not his recorded rate ›
Adjusted per game is the rate each percentile was computed from: his recorded rate, weighted toward recent games and pulled toward the league average by sample size, so a short career does not read as an elite one. It sits closer to average than the rate recorded, so a skater with no points in his games can still show points per game above zero.
Points per game played, regular season. Filled dots are finished seasons; the smaller dot is the season to date; the dotted ring is the 2026-27 projection, the per-game rate the projections board uses. GP: games played.
What next
2026-27, projected
Full-season pace · his rate times the schedule
If he plays all 84 Washington Capitals games at his modelled per-game rate
Points
16.9
Goals
0.7
Assists
16.3
Shots on goal
60.4
Power-play points
0.4
Hits
173.8
Blocked shots
100.9
Penalty minutes
39.0
Based on 57 games he has played, weighted toward recent ones. It assumes he plays all 84: injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled.
How the pace is worked out — the figure the projections board ranks on ›
Each figure is his per-game rate, weighted toward recent games, times the 84 games on the Washington Capitals schedule. It is the pace the projections board ranks the league on, so the figure a reader clicked there is the one at the top of this card.
Shooting
Where he shoots, and how he finishes
Shot density · 2026-27 · open play, regular season
FewerMore attempts, up to this skater’s busiest cell
Open play · regular season · goals
Goals against expected, by season
So far in 2026-27 he has scored 0 where the model expected 0.1 from his chances: 0.1 fewer.
2026-27 · on the rink0 G · 0.1 model xG · −0.1 · 3 GP
2025-260 G · 0.9 avg · −0.9 · 12 GP
2024-250 G · 0.3 avg · −0.3 · 13 GP
2023-240 G · 0.3 avg · −0.3 · 12 GP
Goals
Expected: the model this season, a league-average finisher before
What the ring counts — what a league-average finisher would score from the same attempts ›
The shot model prices the chance of a goal on every unblocked attempt he took in open play during the regular season; shootouts and penalty shots are left out. Those chances are scaled so that, across the league, they add up to the goals actually scored that season, so the ring is what a league-average finisher would have scored from his attempts and each season is measured against its own average. The gap is his goals minus that; the table below lists the exact figures. The season being played is measured against the model itself, season to date: its ring is the model’s expected goals, unscaled, because the league-wide level of the model for that season is read once, after it ends. So its lane is not compared one-to-one with a finished season’s.
Finishing against the model · open play, regular season to date
Finishing this season: goals against the model’s expected goals on the same attempts
Season
G
2026-27
0.1
0
−0.1
3
3
G vs model: goals minus the model’s expected goals on the same attempts (xG), season to date. Not measured against the league average, so it is not compared one-to-one with the seasons below.
Finishing against the league average · open play, regular season
Finishing by season: goals against a league-average finisher on the same attempts
Season
G
2025-26
0.9
0
−0.9
12
29
2024-25
0.3
0
−0.3
13
22
2023-24
0.3
0
−0.3
12
19
G vs avg: goals minus what a league-average finisher would score from the same attempts (Exp G, the model’s expected goals scaled to that season’s league-wide scoring).
Detail
The record
Regular season
Season
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
SH%
PPG
SHG
HIT
BLK
GV
TK
FOW
FOL
FO%
SHFT
TOI PP
TOI SH
2023-24
14
0
1
1
0.07
0
2
11
0.0
0
0
30
14
3
5
0
0
—
18.6
13:42
0:02
1:46
2024-25
19
0
1
1
0.05
−3
17
12
0.0
0
0
38
25
16
7
0
0
—
21.6
16:22
0:01
2:17
2025-26
20
0
7
7
0.35
+4
6
17
0.0
0
0
48
24
22
4
0
0
—
18.3
16:20
0:00
1:19
2026-27
4
0
0
0
0.00
−1
2
1
0.0
0
0
6
5
6
1
0
0
—
18.0
13:31
0:00
0:00
TOI, TOI PP, TOI SH and SHFT are per game.
2026-27 is the season to date, as of Oct 27, 9:05 AM ET.
2026-27 regular season by strength · G-A-P
Even strength
0-0-00 goals, 0 assists, 0 points
Power play
0-0-00 goals, 0 assists, 0 points
Shorthanded
0-0-00 goals, 0 assists, 0 points
A penalty-shot goal counts at the strength in play just before the shot.
The prices posted for a game already played. Open to see them.
He played for WPG in this game.
The model has not beaten the Pinnacle closing line: shots-on-goal ROI −0.0709[−0.0932, −0.0467] per unit over 7,171 bets in a 2025-26 backtest of 512 games. How this was measured
Pre-game snapshotCaptured Oct 25, 3:16 PM ET
This game’s markets: the posted line, the model’s projection and its chance of the over
