Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 396 game sample- PTS
- 74.0
- SOG
- 213.4
- G
- 33.9
- A
- 40.1
- PPP
- 25.3
- HIT
- 88.2
- BLK
- 33.2
- PIM
- 79.7
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 396 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 396 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 396 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.91
- G
- 0.41
- A
- 0.49
- SOG
- 2.61
- PPP
- 0.31
- HIT
- 1.07
- BLK
- 0.40
- PIM
- 0.98
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 52 | 27 | 27 | 54 | 1.04 | 138 | 17:44 |
| 2024-25 | 71 | 23 | 28 | 51 | 0.72 | 194 | 18:19 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 29 | 38 | 67 | 0.82 | 207 | 19:06 |
| 2022-23 | 73 | 21 | 46 | 67 | 0.92 | 183 | 18:32 |
| 2021-22 | 70 | 32 | 48 | 80 | 1.14 | 242 | 19:15 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 23 | 10 | 10 | 20 | 0.87 | 47 | 16:40 |
| 2023-24 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 0.91 | 20 | 18:15 |
| 2022-23 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 1.43 | 25 | 20:39 |
| 2021-22 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 1.57 | 21 | 20:09 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 | @ DET | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:53 |
| Mar 5 | @ CBJ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:39 |
| Mar 3 | @ NJD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14:12 |
| Mar 1 | @ NYI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:14 |
| Feb 27 | vs BUF | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:10 |
| Feb 26 | vs TOR | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:10 |
| Feb 4 | vs BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:55 |
| Jan 29 | @ STL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:19 |
| Jan 27 | vs UTA | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:49 |
| Jan 25 | @ CHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:46 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Mar 6 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19.8 | 27 | plus 7.2 goals above expected | 50 | 216 |
| 2024-25 | 27.8 | 22 | minus 5.8 goals above expected | 66 | 280 |
| 2023-24 | 25.9 | 29 | plus 3.1 goals above expected | 79 | 294 |
| 2022-23 | 22.0 | 20 | minus 2.0 goals above expected | 70 | 249 |
| 2021-22 | 27.5 | 31 | plus 3.5 goals above expected | 70 | 305 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 20 goals, 12 assists, 32 points | 6 goals, 15 assists, 21 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 17 goals, 19 assists, 36 points | 5 goals, 8 assists, 13 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 19 goals, 18 assists, 37 points | 7 goals, 19 assists, 26 points | 3 goals, 1 assist, 4 points |
| 2022-23 | 12 goals, 25 assists, 37 points | 8 goals, 20 assists, 28 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 22 goals, 28 assists, 50 points | 7 goals, 20 assists, 27 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
Shot locations
216 attempts · 27 goals · 2025-26Markets · Mar 6
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.