Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 274 game sample- PTS
- 37.4
- SOG
- 129.7
- G
- 14.1
- A
- 23.3
- PPP
- 7.0
- HIT
- 13.9
- BLK
- 38.0
- PIM
- 20.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 274 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 274 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 274 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.46
- G
- 0.17
- A
- 0.28
- SOG
- 1.58
- PPP
- 0.09
- HIT
- 0.16
- BLK
- 0.46
- PIM
- 0.25
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 76 | 7 | 15 | 22 | 0.29 | 114 | 13:14 |
| 2024-25 | 68 | 24 | 33 | 57 | 0.84 | 123 | 17:17 |
| 2023-24 | 42 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 0.38 | 62 | 13:32 |
| 2022-23 | 79 | 16 | 24 | 40 | 0.51 | 126 | 14:31 |
| 2021-22 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.33 | 5 | 12:26 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | vs WSH | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10:51 |
| Apr 12 | vs BOS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:57 |
| Apr 11 | @ MTL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:12 |
| Apr 9 | @ BUF | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:18 |
| Apr 7 | @ DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:24 |
| Apr 2 | @ CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:22 |
| Mar 31 | vs CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:48 |
| Mar 28 | vs SJS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 |
| Mar 24 | @ PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:21 |
| Mar 22 | @ NYI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:59 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13.7 | 7 | minus 6.7 goals above expected | 67 | 168 |
| 2024-25 | 14.0 | 24 | plus 10.0 goals above expected | 64 | 180 |
| 2023-24 | 6.2 | 6 | minus 0.2 goals above expected | 34 | 86 |
| 2022-23 | 13.7 | 16 | plus 2.3 goals above expected | 66 | 167 |
| 2021-22 | 1.1 | 0 | minus 1.1 goals above expected | 8 | 13 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 goals, 14 assists, 20 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 19 goals, 20 assists, 39 points | 4 goals, 11 assists, 15 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points |
| 2023-24 | 6 goals, 10 assists, 16 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 11 goals, 17 assists, 28 points | 5 goals, 7 assists, 12 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
168 attempts · 7 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.