Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 468 game sample- PTS
- 132.8
- SOG
- 289.9
- G
- 40.9
- A
- 91.9
- PPP
- 48.9
- HIT
- 66.1
- BLK
- 34.5
- PIM
- 39.5
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 468 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 468 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 468 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 1.63
- G
- 0.50
- A
- 1.13
- SOG
- 3.55
- PPP
- 0.60
- HIT
- 0.80
- BLK
- 0.42
- PIM
- 0.48
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 48 | 90 | 138 | 1.68 | 306 | 22:59 |
| 2024-25 | 67 | 26 | 74 | 100 | 1.49 | 196 | 22:02 |
| 2023-24 | 76 | 32 | 100 | 132 | 1.74 | 263 | 21:22 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 64 | 89 | 153 | 1.87 | 352 | 22:23 |
| 2021-22 | 80 | 44 | 79 | 123 | 1.54 | 314 | 22:04 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1.00 | 20 | 23:33 |
| 2024-25 | 22 | 7 | 26 | 33 | 1.50 | 80 | 24:26 |
| 2023-24 | 25 | 8 | 34 | 42 | 1.68 | 75 | 23:02 |
| 2022-23 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 20 | 1.67 | 51 | 23:43 |
| 2021-22 | 16 | 10 | 23 | 33 | 2.06 | 61 | 23:02 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30 | @ ANAPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:49 |
| Apr 28 | vs ANAPO | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 24:09 |
| Apr 26 | @ ANAPO | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:32 |
| Apr 24 | @ ANAPO | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 23:50 |
| Apr 22 | vs ANAPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:07 |
| Apr 20 | vs ANAPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 24:50 |
| Apr 16 | vs VAN | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:16 |
| Apr 13 | vs COL | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27:55 |
| Apr 11 | @ LAK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 26:50 |
| Apr 8 | @ SJS | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:10 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 8 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 45.3 | 47 | plus 1.7 goals above expected | 81 | 423 |
| 2024-25 | 28.4 | 26 | minus 2.4 goals above expected | 65 | 282 |
| 2023-24 | 34.1 | 31 | minus 3.1 goals above expected | 75 | 353 |
| 2022-23 | 50.3 | 63 | plus 12.7 goals above expected | 82 | 440 |
| 2021-22 | 44.6 | 44 | minus 0.6 goals above expected | 80 | 393 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 33 goals, 48 assists, 81 points | 13 goals, 41 assists, 54 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 17 goals, 53 assists, 70 points | 9 goals, 21 assists, 30 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 23 goals, 63 assists, 86 points | 7 goals, 37 assists, 44 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 39 goals, 36 assists, 75 points | 20 goals, 50 assists, 70 points | 4 goals, 3 assists, 7 points |
| 2021-22 | 34 goals, 44 assists, 78 points | 10 goals, 34 assists, 44 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
423 attempts · 47 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 8
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.