Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 404 game sample- PTS
- 80.2
- SOG
- 191.4
- G
- 29.2
- A
- 50.9
- PPP
- 28.9
- HIT
- 133.4
- BLK
- 45.2
- PIM
- 40.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 404 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 404 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 404 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.98
- G
- 0.36
- A
- 0.62
- SOG
- 2.34
- PPP
- 0.35
- HIT
- 1.63
- BLK
- 0.55
- PIM
- 0.49
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 80 | 34 | 49 | 83 | 1.04 | 194 | 20:16 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 24 | 55 | 79 | 0.96 | 162 | 19:49 |
| 2023-24 | 75 | 18 | 52 | 70 | 0.93 | 192 | 21:07 |
| 2022-23 | 78 | 39 | 51 | 90 | 1.15 | 228 | 21:16 |
| 2021-22 | 79 | 22 | 36 | 58 | 0.73 | 176 | 18:25 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.25 | 8 | 25:31 |
| 2024-25 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.83 | 14 | 20:02 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 25 | vs CARPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 25:57 |
| Apr 23 | vs CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:57 |
| Apr 20 | @ CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 29:05 |
| Apr 18 | @ CARPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:05 |
| Apr 11 | @ NYI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:00 |
| Apr 9 | vs FLA | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:49 |
| Apr 7 | vs TBL | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 18:31 |
| Apr 5 | vs CAR | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16:56 |
| Apr 4 | vs MIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:31 |
| Apr 2 | vs BUF | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19:57 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 11 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 30.5 | 34 | plus 3.5 goals above expected | 75 | 278 |
| 2024-25 | 21.1 | 24 | plus 2.9 goals above expected | 75 | 230 |
| 2023-24 | 24.0 | 18 | minus 6.0 goals above expected | 74 | 269 |
| 2022-23 | 34.2 | 38 | plus 3.8 goals above expected | 77 | 321 |
| 2021-22 | 25.2 | 22 | minus 3.2 goals above expected | 75 | 241 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 23 goals, 29 assists, 52 points | 9 goals, 20 assists, 29 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 19 goals, 27 assists, 46 points | 5 goals, 28 assists, 33 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 17 goals, 33 assists, 50 points | 1 goal, 19 assists, 20 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 25 goals, 33 assists, 58 points | 10 goals, 18 assists, 28 points | 3 goals, 0 assists, 3 points |
| 2021-22 | 14 goals, 17 assists, 31 points | 7 goals, 19 assists, 26 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
Shot locations
278 attempts · 34 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 11
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.