Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 408 game sample- PTS
- 61.0
- SOG
- 221.3
- G
- 27.9
- A
- 33.1
- PPP
- 17.2
- HIT
- 28.0
- BLK
- 32.8
- PIM
- 15.1
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 408 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 408 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 408 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.75
- G
- 0.34
- A
- 0.40
- SOG
- 2.71
- PPP
- 0.21
- HIT
- 0.34
- BLK
- 0.40
- PIM
- 0.18
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 72 | 18 | 28 | 46 | 0.64 | 173 | 15:44 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 36 | 34 | 70 | 0.85 | 239 | 17:29 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 31 | 36 | 67 | 0.82 | 251 | 18:20 |
| 2022-23 | 79 | 37 | 36 | 73 | 0.92 | 272 | 18:00 |
| 2021-22 | 74 | 27 | 48 | 75 | 1.01 | 188 | 16:35 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.43 | 18 | 17:34 |
| 2021-22 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 0.75 | 32 | 15:46 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ UTA | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:48 |
| Apr 14 | vs PIT | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:43 |
| Apr 13 | vs MIN | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:49 |
| Apr 11 | @ CHI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:41 |
| Apr 9 | vs WPG | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17:06 |
| Apr 7 | vs COL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:35 |
| Apr 5 | @ COL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:49 |
| Apr 3 | @ ANA | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13:06 |
| Apr 1 | @ LAK | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 |
| Mar 30 | @ SJS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:22 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 22.3 | 18 | minus 4.3 goals above expected | 68 | 252 |
| 2024-25 | 26.4 | 36 | plus 9.6 goals above expected | 79 | 328 |
| 2023-24 | 26.8 | 31 | plus 4.2 goals above expected | 79 | 365 |
| 2022-23 | 29.8 | 37 | plus 7.2 goals above expected | 79 | 359 |
| 2021-22 | 21.8 | 27 | plus 5.2 goals above expected | 71 | 242 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15 goals, 18 assists, 33 points | 3 goals, 10 assists, 13 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 29 goals, 24 assists, 53 points | 7 goals, 10 assists, 17 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 23 goals, 23 assists, 46 points | 8 goals, 13 assists, 21 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 26 goals, 24 assists, 50 points | 11 goals, 12 assists, 23 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 22 goals, 34 assists, 56 points | 5 goals, 14 assists, 19 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
252 attempts · 18 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.