Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 236 game sample- PTS
- 46.1
- SOG
- 183.1
- G
- 22.8
- A
- 23.3
- PPP
- 8.9
- HIT
- 71.1
- BLK
- 26.7
- PIM
- 23.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 236 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 236 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 236 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.56
- G
- 0.28
- A
- 0.28
- SOG
- 2.24
- PPP
- 0.11
- HIT
- 0.86
- BLK
- 0.32
- PIM
- 0.28
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 21 | 23 | 44 | 0.54 | 166 | 15:27 |
| 2024-25 | 78 | 14 | 24 | 38 | 0.49 | 194 | 15:05 |
| 2023-24 | 24 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 0.58 | 51 | 14:40 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19 | 11 | 5 | 16 | 0.84 | 55 | 17:13 |
| 2024-25 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 0.53 | 24 | 15:32 |
| 2023-24 | 19 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0.42 | 36 | 16:01 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14 | @ VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 16:15 |
| Jun 11 | vs VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:46 |
| Jun 9 | @ VGKPO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:54 |
| Jun 6 | @ VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 23:50 |
| Jun 4 | vs VGKPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:04 |
| Jun 2 | vs VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:37 |
| May 29 | vs MTLPO | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16:00 |
| May 27 | @ MTLPO | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:16 |
| May 25 | @ MTLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:03 |
| May 23 | vs MTLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16:11 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 24.6 | 21 | minus 3.6 goals above expected | 81 | 254 |
| 2024-25 | 23.7 | 14 | minus 9.7 goals above expected | 74 | 275 |
| 2023-24 | 6.4 | 6 | minus 0.4 goals above expected | 22 | 78 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 17 goals, 18 assists, 35 points | 4 goals, 5 assists, 9 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 12 goals, 18 assists, 30 points | 2 goals, 6 assists, 8 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 5 goals, 7 assists, 12 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
254 attempts · 21 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.