Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 396 game sample- PTS
- 71.5
- SOG
- 268.1
- G
- 38.4
- A
- 33.1
- PPP
- 23.1
- HIT
- 149.9
- BLK
- 19.2
- PIM
- 25.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 396 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 396 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 396 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.87
- G
- 0.47
- A
- 0.40
- SOG
- 3.28
- PPP
- 0.28
- HIT
- 1.83
- BLK
- 0.23
- PIM
- 0.31
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 32 | 32 | 64 | 0.78 | 244 | 17:27 |
| 2024-25 | 65 | 44 | 29 | 73 | 1.12 | 237 | 17:43 |
| 2023-24 | 79 | 31 | 34 | 65 | 0.82 | 272 | 19:13 |
| 2022-23 | 73 | 42 | 33 | 75 | 1.03 | 294 | 20:12 |
| 2021-22 | 77 | 50 | 40 | 90 | 1.17 | 334 | 20:34 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0.60 | 33 | 17:01 |
| 2023-24 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 5 | 19:35 |
| 2021-22 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1.00 | 19 | 18:32 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | @ CBJ | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:48 |
| Apr 12 | vs PIT | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16:11 |
| Apr 11 | @ PIT | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:59 |
| Apr 8 | @ TOR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:36 |
| Apr 5 | @ NYR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:26 |
| Apr 4 | vs BUF | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:01 |
| Apr 2 | @ NJD | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18:05 |
| Mar 31 | vs PHI | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15:44 |
| Mar 28 | @ VGK | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:35 |
| Mar 26 | @ UTA | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:27 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 8 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 32.7 | 32 | minus 0.7 goals above expected | 82 | 390 |
| 2024-25 | 27.2 | 44 | plus 16.8 goals above expected | 64 | 355 |
| 2023-24 | 27.8 | 31 | plus 3.2 goals above expected | 78 | 394 |
| 2022-23 | 36.2 | 42 | plus 5.8 goals above expected | 73 | 412 |
| 2021-22 | 38.3 | 50 | plus 11.7 goals above expected | 77 | 468 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 27 goals, 18 assists, 45 points | 5 goals, 14 assists, 19 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 30 goals, 21 assists, 51 points | 14 goals, 8 assists, 22 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 18 goals, 19 assists, 37 points | 13 goals, 15 assists, 28 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 28 goals, 22 assists, 50 points | 14 goals, 11 assists, 25 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 33 goals, 27 assists, 60 points | 16 goals, 13 assists, 29 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
Shot locations
390 attempts · 32 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 8
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.