Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 420 game sample- PTS
- 76.5
- SOG
- 192.9
- G
- 23.0
- A
- 53.6
- PPP
- 24.1
- HIT
- 74.9
- BLK
- 31.2
- PIM
- 13.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 420 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 420 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 420 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.94
- G
- 0.28
- A
- 0.66
- SOG
- 2.36
- PPP
- 0.30
- HIT
- 0.91
- BLK
- 0.38
- PIM
- 0.16
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 22 | 49 | 71 | 0.87 | 178 | 18:46 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 21 | 67 | 88 | 1.09 | 180 | 18:57 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 27 | 56 | 83 | 1.01 | 248 | 19:19 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 32 | 41 | 73 | 0.89 | 212 | 17:22 |
| 2021-22 | 76 | 26 | 47 | 73 | 0.96 | 197 | 17:26 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.60 | 20 | 23:23 |
| 2022-23 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0.50 | 25 | 18:06 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | @ BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:23 |
| Apr 12 | vs OTT | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:34 |
| Apr 11 | @ DET | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:01 |
| Apr 9 | vs PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:41 |
| Apr 7 | vs PHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19:07 |
| Apr 5 | @ MTL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:16 |
| Apr 4 | vs MTL | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:24 |
| Apr 2 | vs WSH | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:11 |
| Mar 31 | @ NYR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:03 |
| Mar 29 | vs CHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:54 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 23.0 | 22 | minus 1.0 goals above expected | 77 | 267 |
| 2024-25 | 26.7 | 21 | minus 5.7 goals above expected | 80 | 284 |
| 2023-24 | 29.3 | 27 | minus 2.3 goals above expected | 81 | 350 |
| 2022-23 | 26.9 | 32 | plus 5.1 goals above expected | 80 | 303 |
| 2021-22 | 20.1 | 25 | plus 4.9 goals above expected | 74 | 262 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16 goals, 33 assists, 49 points | 5 goals, 15 assists, 20 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 15 goals, 35 assists, 50 points | 4 goals, 30 assists, 34 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points |
| 2023-24 | 20 goals, 35 assists, 55 points | 7 goals, 20 assists, 27 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 24 goals, 27 assists, 51 points | 8 goals, 14 assists, 22 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 22 goals, 32 assists, 54 points | 3 goals, 15 assists, 18 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
267 attempts · 22 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.