Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 399 game sample- PTS
- 38.7
- SOG
- 145.6
- G
- 18.9
- A
- 19.8
- PPP
- 5.3
- HIT
- 90.4
- BLK
- 20.8
- PIM
- 43.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 399 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 399 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 399 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.47
- G
- 0.23
- A
- 0.24
- SOG
- 1.78
- PPP
- 0.06
- HIT
- 1.10
- BLK
- 0.25
- PIM
- 0.53
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 15 | 15 | 30 | 0.37 | 122 | 14:44 |
| 2024-25 | 80 | 31 | 31 | 62 | 0.78 | 182 | 16:19 |
| 2023-24 | 78 | 12 | 18 | 30 | 0.38 | 149 | 14:00 |
| 2022-23 | 71 | 14 | 13 | 27 | 0.38 | 122 | 11:15 |
| 2021-22 | 74 | 16 | 15 | 31 | 0.42 | 159 | 13:47 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 24 | 9:05 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | vs SJS | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 16:03 |
| Apr 13 | vs BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:49 |
| Apr 11 | vs STL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:53 |
| Apr 9 | vs CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:53 |
| Apr 6 | @ SJS | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 |
| Apr 4 | @ SEA | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:12 |
| Apr 2 | @ EDM | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:16 |
| Mar 31 | vs WPG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:06 |
| Mar 29 | @ NJD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:52 |
| Mar 27 | @ NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:59 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16.7 | 15 | minus 1.7 goals above expected | 70 | 213 |
| 2024-25 | 20.6 | 31 | plus 10.4 goals above expected | 77 | 261 |
| 2023-24 | 15.3 | 12 | minus 3.3 goals above expected | 72 | 194 |
| 2022-23 | 11.8 | 14 | plus 2.2 goals above expected | 63 | 156 |
| 2021-22 | 16.9 | 16 | minus 0.9 goals above expected | 68 | 222 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 14 goals, 14 assists, 28 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 26 goals, 22 assists, 48 points | 5 goals, 9 assists, 14 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 11 goals, 16 assists, 27 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 14 goals, 11 assists, 25 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 15 goals, 15 assists, 30 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
213 attempts · 15 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.