Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 440 game sample- PTS
- 66.1
- SOG
- 240.2
- G
- 39.8
- A
- 26.3
- PPP
- 17.8
- HIT
- 119.9
- BLK
- 29.6
- PIM
- 41.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 440 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 440 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 440 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.81
- G
- 0.49
- A
- 0.32
- SOG
- 2.94
- PPP
- 0.22
- HIT
- 1.46
- BLK
- 0.36
- PIM
- 0.51
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 58 | 31 | 21 | 52 | 0.90 | 159 | 19:59 |
| 2024-25 | 73 | 27 | 17 | 44 | 0.60 | 210 | 18:53 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 54 | 23 | 77 | 0.96 | 290 | 19:30 |
| 2022-23 | 79 | 36 | 47 | 83 | 1.05 | 276 | 20:09 |
| 2021-22 | 76 | 27 | 27 | 54 | 0.71 | 213 | 19:28 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.33 | 13 | 18:49 |
| 2024-25 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 0.73 | 30 | 17:42 |
| 2023-24 | 25 | 16 | 6 | 22 | 0.88 | 90 | 21:25 |
| 2022-23 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 0.92 | 46 | 18:58 |
| 2021-22 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 16 | 1.00 | 67 | 20:28 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30 | @ ANAPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20:51 |
| Apr 28 | vs ANAPO | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 18:07 |
| Apr 26 | @ ANAPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:45 |
| Apr 24 | @ ANAPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15:28 |
| Apr 22 | vs ANAPO | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21:06 |
| Apr 20 | vs ANAPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 21:36 |
| Apr 16 | vs VAN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:11 |
| Apr 2 | vs CHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:40 |
| Mar 31 | vs SEA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:39 |
| Mar 28 | vs ANA | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:45 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 36.5 | 31 | minus 5.5 goals above expected | 58 | 245 |
| 2024-25 | 37.3 | 27 | minus 10.3 goals above expected | 72 | 309 |
| 2023-24 | 49.1 | 54 | plus 4.9 goals above expected | 79 | 404 |
| 2022-23 | 49.0 | 35 | minus 14.0 goals above expected | 78 | 367 |
| 2021-22 | 31.1 | 27 | minus 4.1 goals above expected | 74 | 293 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 21 goals, 16 assists, 37 points | 10 goals, 5 assists, 15 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 21 goals, 11 assists, 32 points | 6 goals, 6 assists, 12 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 39 goals, 18 assists, 57 points | 15 goals, 5 assists, 20 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 20 goals, 36 assists, 56 points | 15 goals, 11 assists, 26 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 21 goals, 19 assists, 40 points | 5 goals, 5 assists, 10 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points |
Shot locations
245 attempts · 31 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.