Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 411 game sample- PTS
- 129.3
- SOG
- 265.7
- G
- 40.5
- A
- 88.8
- PPP
- 43.9
- HIT
- 41.8
- BLK
- 31.6
- PIM
- 49.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 411 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 411 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 411 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 1.58
- G
- 0.50
- A
- 1.09
- SOG
- 3.25
- PPP
- 0.54
- HIT
- 0.51
- BLK
- 0.38
- PIM
- 0.60
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 77 | 44 | 86 | 130 | 1.69 | 231 | 20:04 |
| 2024-25 | 78 | 37 | 84 | 121 | 1.55 | 265 | 21:11 |
| 2023-24 | 81 | 44 | 100 | 144 | 1.78 | 306 | 21:40 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 30 | 83 | 113 | 1.38 | 271 | 20:08 |
| 2021-22 | 47 | 25 | 44 | 69 | 1.47 | 156 | 19:59 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0.86 | 31 | 21:20 |
| 2024-25 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.80 | 7 | 22:59 |
| 2023-24 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 1.40 | 9 | 21:26 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1.00 | 21 | 20:16 |
| 2021-22 | 23 | 8 | 19 | 27 | 1.17 | 77 | 20:44 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 3 | vs MTLPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:16 |
| May 1 | @ MTLPO | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22:50 |
| Apr 29 | vs MTLPO | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:44 |
| Apr 26 | @ MTLPO | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22:57 |
| Apr 24 | @ MTLPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:35 |
| Apr 21 | vs MTLPO | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 23:22 |
| Apr 19 | vs MTLPO | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:38 |
| Apr 15 | vs NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:54 |
| Apr 13 | vs DET | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:29 |
| Apr 11 | @ BOS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:21 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 11 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 34.5 | 44 | plus 9.5 goals above expected | 76 | 378 |
| 2024-25 | 27.9 | 37 | plus 9.1 goals above expected | 78 | 379 |
| 2023-24 | 38.0 | 44 | plus 6.0 goals above expected | 81 | 458 |
| 2022-23 | 33.5 | 30 | minus 3.5 goals above expected | 82 | 396 |
| 2021-22 | 18.9 | 25 | plus 6.1 goals above expected | 46 | 214 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 35 goals, 57 assists, 92 points | 8 goals, 29 assists, 37 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 29 goals, 47 assists, 76 points | 8 goals, 37 assists, 45 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 31 goals, 60 assists, 91 points | 13 goals, 40 assists, 53 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 22 goals, 41 assists, 63 points | 8 goals, 42 assists, 50 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 16 goals, 23 assists, 39 points | 9 goals, 21 assists, 30 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
378 attempts · 44 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 11
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.