Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 408 game sample- PTS
- 67.1
- SOG
- 150.2
- G
- 23.1
- A
- 44.0
- PPP
- 25.1
- HIT
- 17.1
- BLK
- 54.4
- PIM
- 37.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 408 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 408 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 408 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.82
- G
- 0.28
- A
- 0.54
- SOG
- 1.83
- PPP
- 0.31
- HIT
- 0.20
- BLK
- 0.66
- PIM
- 0.46
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 80 | 19 | 39 | 58 | 0.73 | 143 | 18:02 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 29 | 53 | 82 | 1.00 | 149 | 17:23 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 27 | 40 | 67 | 0.82 | 169 | 17:57 |
| 2022-23 | 81 | 23 | 42 | 65 | 0.80 | 154 | 16:41 |
| 2021-22 | 69 | 22 | 26 | 48 | 0.70 | 126 | 17:26 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 1.10 | 15 | 17:25 |
| 2023-24 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.50 | 10 | 20:21 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | @ CBJ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:42 |
| Apr 12 | vs PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:32 |
| Apr 11 | @ PIT | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:01 |
| Apr 8 | @ TOR | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:34 |
| Apr 5 | @ NYR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13:35 |
| Apr 4 | vs BUF | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16:38 |
| Apr 2 | @ NJD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:12 |
| Mar 31 | vs PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16:17 |
| Mar 28 | @ VGK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 19:10 |
| Mar 26 | @ UTA | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18:07 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 8 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19.6 | 19 | minus 0.6 goals above expected | 72 | 204 |
| 2024-25 | 21.0 | 29 | plus 8.0 goals above expected | 74 | 216 |
| 2023-24 | 22.0 | 27 | plus 5.0 goals above expected | 77 | 241 |
| 2022-23 | 20.3 | 23 | plus 2.7 goals above expected | 75 | 220 |
| 2021-22 | 15.9 | 22 | plus 6.1 goals above expected | 59 | 156 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13 goals, 24 assists, 37 points | 6 goals, 15 assists, 21 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 20 goals, 28 assists, 48 points | 9 goals, 25 assists, 34 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 21 goals, 24 assists, 45 points | 6 goals, 16 assists, 22 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 20 goals, 24 assists, 44 points | 3 goals, 18 assists, 21 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 17 goals, 15 assists, 32 points | 5 goals, 11 assists, 16 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
204 attempts · 19 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 8
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.