Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 445 game sample- PTS
- 97.2
- SOG
- 215.3
- G
- 33.4
- A
- 63.8
- PPP
- 39.4
- HIT
- 65.1
- BLK
- 48.5
- PIM
- 86.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 445 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 445 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 445 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 1.19
- G
- 0.41
- A
- 0.78
- SOG
- 2.63
- PPP
- 0.48
- HIT
- 0.79
- BLK
- 0.59
- PIM
- 1.06
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 64 | 22 | 55 | 77 | 1.20 | 139 | 20:11 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 32 | 56 | 88 | 1.07 | 212 | 21:15 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 42 | 62 | 104 | 1.30 | 271 | 22:55 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 55 | 50 | 105 | 1.28 | 306 | 22:13 |
| 2021-22 | 75 | 36 | 56 | 92 | 1.23 | 254 | 20:59 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 1.17 | 14 | 22:41 |
| 2024-25 | 18 | 9 | 13 | 22 | 1.22 | 50 | 20:46 |
| 2023-24 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 1.27 | 32 | 24:04 |
| 2022-23 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 1.43 | 27 | 21:26 |
| 2021-22 | 20 | 5 | 20 | 25 | 1.25 | 53 | 20:11 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30 | @ MINPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 21:46 |
| Apr 28 | vs MINPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 23:32 |
| Apr 25 | @ MINPO | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 22:59 |
| Apr 22 | @ MINPO | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 27:14 |
| Apr 20 | vs MINPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 19:12 |
| Apr 18 | vs MINPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 21:22 |
| Apr 15 | @ BUF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:33 |
| Apr 13 | @ TOR | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:23 |
| Apr 11 | vs NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:25 |
| Apr 9 | vs MIN | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 17:42 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 23.0 | 22 | minus 1.0 goals above expected | 63 | 219 |
| 2024-25 | 36.6 | 32 | minus 4.6 goals above expected | 79 | 335 |
| 2023-24 | 32.7 | 42 | plus 9.3 goals above expected | 79 | 399 |
| 2022-23 | 37.1 | 55 | plus 17.9 goals above expected | 82 | 428 |
| 2021-22 | 30.7 | 36 | plus 5.3 goals above expected | 75 | 364 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16 goals, 27 assists, 43 points | 6 goals, 28 assists, 34 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 21 goals, 40 assists, 61 points | 11 goals, 16 assists, 27 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 28 goals, 36 assists, 64 points | 14 goals, 26 assists, 40 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 42 goals, 26 assists, 68 points | 13 goals, 24 assists, 37 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 20 goals, 36 assists, 56 points | 16 goals, 20 assists, 36 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
219 attempts · 22 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.