Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 400 game sample- PTS
- 75.1
- SOG
- 177.5
- G
- 26.1
- A
- 49.0
- PPP
- 27.8
- HIT
- 48.0
- BLK
- 30.1
- PIM
- 22.5
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 400 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 400 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 400 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.92
- G
- 0.32
- A
- 0.60
- SOG
- 2.17
- PPP
- 0.34
- HIT
- 0.58
- BLK
- 0.36
- PIM
- 0.27
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 80 | 25 | 51 | 76 | 0.95 | 173 | 18:48 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 27 | 53 | 80 | 0.98 | 192 | 18:47 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 31 | 41 | 72 | 0.88 | 163 | 17:45 |
| 2022-23 | 74 | 17 | 28 | 45 | 0.61 | 134 | 17:23 |
| 2021-22 | 82 | 23 | 34 | 57 | 0.70 | 184 | 18:10 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ FLA | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:57 |
| Apr 13 | @ TBL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:04 |
| Apr 11 | vs NJD | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:54 |
| Apr 9 | vs PHI | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:08 |
| Apr 7 | vs CBJ | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:33 |
| Apr 5 | vs MIN | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:25 |
| Apr 4 | @ NYR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19:53 |
| Apr 2 | @ PHI | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:14 |
| Mar 31 | @ PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13:54 |
| Mar 28 | vs PHI | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:53 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 21.7 | 25 | plus 3.3 goals above expected | 76 | 270 |
| 2024-25 | 24.5 | 27 | plus 2.5 goals above expected | 80 | 283 |
| 2023-24 | 22.2 | 31 | plus 8.8 goals above expected | 76 | 227 |
| 2022-23 | 16.2 | 17 | plus 0.8 goals above expected | 63 | 174 |
| 2021-22 | 21.6 | 23 | plus 1.4 goals above expected | 77 | 224 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18 goals, 31 assists, 49 points | 7 goals, 20 assists, 27 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 18 goals, 24 assists, 42 points | 8 goals, 29 assists, 37 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 25 goals, 31 assists, 56 points | 6 goals, 10 assists, 16 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 12 goals, 14 assists, 26 points | 5 goals, 14 assists, 19 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 18 goals, 21 assists, 39 points | 5 goals, 13 assists, 18 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
270 attempts · 25 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.