Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 406 game sample- PTS
- 92.5
- SOG
- 177.9
- G
- 36.0
- A
- 56.4
- PPP
- 22.7
- HIT
- 54.1
- BLK
- 49.9
- PIM
- 51.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 406 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 406 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 406 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 1.13
- G
- 0.44
- A
- 0.69
- SOG
- 2.17
- PPP
- 0.28
- HIT
- 0.66
- BLK
- 0.61
- PIM
- 0.63
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 36 | 67 | 103 | 1.26 | 175 | 21:30 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 39 | 48 | 87 | 1.06 | 181 | 20:26 |
| 2023-24 | 74 | 25 | 47 | 72 | 0.97 | 154 | 20:11 |
| 2022-23 | 81 | 42 | 26 | 68 | 0.84 | 206 | 20:29 |
| 2021-22 | 67 | 29 | 41 | 70 | 1.04 | 159 | 21:08 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 1.00 | 22 | 19:00 |
| 2023-24 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1.20 | 10 | 21:43 |
| 2022-23 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 10 | 17:35 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | vs SJS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:34 |
| Apr 14 | @ UTA | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:14 |
| Apr 13 | @ VGK | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 21:02 |
| Apr 11 | vs PHI | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:22 |
| Apr 9 | @ STL | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:21 |
| Apr 6 | vs SEA | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 22:44 |
| Apr 4 | @ CBJ | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22:39 |
| Apr 2 | @ DAL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:08 |
| Mar 31 | @ CHI | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:32 |
| Mar 28 | @ COL | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 23:51 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 29.0 | 36 | plus 7.0 goals above expected | 78 | 272 |
| 2024-25 | 28.5 | 39 | plus 10.5 goals above expected | 80 | 275 |
| 2023-24 | 23.3 | 25 | plus 1.7 goals above expected | 68 | 218 |
| 2022-23 | 35.8 | 42 | plus 6.2 goals above expected | 80 | 301 |
| 2021-22 | 20.9 | 29 | plus 8.1 goals above expected | 67 | 214 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 29 goals, 51 assists, 80 points | 7 goals, 15 assists, 22 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 28 goals, 33 assists, 61 points | 11 goals, 15 assists, 26 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 19 goals, 35 assists, 54 points | 6 goals, 12 assists, 18 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 30 goals, 16 assists, 46 points | 12 goals, 10 assists, 22 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 22 goals, 28 assists, 50 points | 7 goals, 12 assists, 19 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
272 attempts · 36 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.