Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 427 game sample- PTS
- 92.6
- SOG
- 240.4
- G
- 40.0
- A
- 52.6
- PPP
- 28.5
- HIT
- 20.5
- BLK
- 31.2
- PIM
- 23.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 427 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 427 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 427 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 1.13
- G
- 0.49
- A
- 0.64
- SOG
- 2.94
- PPP
- 0.35
- HIT
- 0.24
- BLK
- 0.38
- PIM
- 0.28
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 65 | 30 | 49 | 79 | 1.22 | 156 | 19:25 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 45 | 39 | 84 | 1.02 | 253 | 19:31 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 40 | 58 | 98 | 1.20 | 316 | 19:55 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 40 | 47 | 87 | 1.06 | 293 | 18:32 |
| 2021-22 | 81 | 34 | 46 | 80 | 0.99 | 256 | 18:16 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 1.15 | 37 | 19:06 |
| 2023-24 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.75 | 18 | 21:44 |
| 2022-23 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 0.91 | 47 | 18:45 |
| 2021-22 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1.00 | 23 | 18:14 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ OTT | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:28 |
| Apr 13 | vs DAL | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:50 |
| Apr 11 | vs FLA | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:48 |
| Apr 9 | @ NYI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:53 |
| Apr 8 | vs WSH | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20:32 |
| Apr 4 | @ LAK | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:24 |
| Apr 2 | @ SJS | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:45 |
| Mar 30 | @ ANA | 8 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23:35 |
| Mar 28 | @ STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:03 |
| Mar 25 | vs NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 20:35 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 21.8 | 30 | plus 8.2 goals above expected | 63 | 238 |
| 2024-25 | 31.5 | 45 | plus 13.5 goals above expected | 80 | 352 |
| 2023-24 | 32.2 | 40 | plus 7.8 goals above expected | 82 | 423 |
| 2022-23 | 37.7 | 40 | plus 2.3 goals above expected | 82 | 403 |
| 2021-22 | 32.6 | 34 | plus 1.4 goals above expected | 79 | 365 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 23 goals, 35 assists, 58 points | 7 goals, 14 assists, 21 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 33 goals, 22 assists, 55 points | 12 goals, 17 assists, 29 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 26 goals, 33 assists, 59 points | 11 goals, 24 assists, 35 points | 3 goals, 1 assist, 4 points |
| 2022-23 | 31 goals, 28 assists, 59 points | 9 goals, 19 assists, 28 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 21 goals, 28 assists, 49 points | 13 goals, 18 assists, 31 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
238 attempts · 30 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.