Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 461 game sample- PTS
- 80.2
- SOG
- 221.0
- G
- 40.0
- A
- 40.2
- PPP
- 29.4
- HIT
- 92.4
- BLK
- 61.8
- PIM
- 21.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 461 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 461 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 461 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.98
- G
- 0.49
- A
- 0.49
- SOG
- 2.70
- PPP
- 0.36
- HIT
- 1.13
- BLK
- 0.75
- PIM
- 0.26
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 64 | 29 | 32 | 61 | 0.95 | 166 | 21:17 |
| 2024-25 | 79 | 39 | 42 | 81 | 1.03 | 213 | 20:30 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 57 | 37 | 94 | 1.15 | 233 | 20:18 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 31 | 36 | 67 | 0.82 | 227 | 19:47 |
| 2021-22 | 78 | 33 | 49 | 82 | 1.05 | 186 | 17:46 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 21 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 1.10 | 63 | 21:31 |
| 2023-24 | 24 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 0.67 | 78 | 21:37 |
| 2022-23 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 0.62 | 45 | 21:59 |
| 2021-22 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.40 | 30 | 19:25 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12 | vs CBJ | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:52 |
| Mar 6 | @ DET | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:32 |
| Mar 5 | @ CBJ | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:34 |
| Mar 3 | @ NJD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:33 |
| Mar 1 | @ NYI | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:34 |
| Feb 27 | vs BUF | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:24 |
| Feb 26 | vs TOR | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:01 |
| Feb 5 | @ TBL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:49 |
| Feb 4 | vs BOS | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 22:58 |
| Feb 2 | vs BUF | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 24:41 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Mar 6 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 29.1 | 29 | minus 0.1 goals above expected | 61 | 277 |
| 2024-25 | 31.5 | 39 | plus 7.5 goals above expected | 75 | 334 |
| 2023-24 | 37.3 | 57 | plus 19.7 goals above expected | 81 | 358 |
| 2022-23 | 36.5 | 31 | minus 5.5 goals above expected | 81 | 330 |
| 2021-22 | 30.8 | 33 | plus 2.2 goals above expected | 77 | 266 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15 goals, 17 assists, 32 points | 11 goals, 14 assists, 25 points | 3 goals, 1 assist, 4 points |
| 2024-25 | 21 goals, 25 assists, 46 points | 13 goals, 16 assists, 29 points | 5 goals, 1 assist, 6 points |
| 2023-24 | 25 goals, 30 assists, 55 points | 27 goals, 7 assists, 34 points | 5 goals, 0 assists, 5 points |
| 2022-23 | 16 goals, 22 assists, 38 points | 15 goals, 11 assists, 26 points | 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points |
| 2021-22 | 17 goals, 32 assists, 49 points | 16 goals, 15 assists, 31 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
Shot locations
277 attempts · 29 goals · 2025-26Markets · Mar 6
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.