Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 385 game sample- PTS
- 35.2
- SOG
- 197.0
- G
- 18.7
- A
- 16.6
- PPP
- 6.5
- HIT
- 145.1
- BLK
- 61.0
- PIM
- 72.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 385 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 385 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 385 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.43
- G
- 0.23
- A
- 0.20
- SOG
- 2.41
- PPP
- 0.08
- HIT
- 1.77
- BLK
- 0.74
- PIM
- 0.88
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 50 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 0.18 | 79 | 11:49 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 21 | 24 | 45 | 0.56 | 234 | 17:33 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 37 | 23 | 60 | 0.73 | 272 | 18:21 |
| 2022-23 | 81 | 22 | 19 | 41 | 0.51 | 231 | 16:41 |
| 2021-22 | 71 | 18 | 14 | 32 | 0.45 | 161 | 13:10 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | 20 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 0.65 | 41 | 15:07 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | @ MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:31 |
| Apr 9 | vs SJS | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:15 |
| Apr 3 | vs STL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12:37 |
| Apr 1 | @ SJS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10:31 |
| Mar 28 | @ EDM | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:00 |
| Mar 26 | @ CGY | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 |
| Mar 18 | vs PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:48 |
| Mar 15 | @ MTL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:17 |
| Mar 14 | @ OTT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:05 |
| Mar 8 | vs STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10:19 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 1 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9.1 | 5 | minus 4.1 goals above expected | 46 | 119 |
| 2024-25 | 29.3 | 21 | minus 8.3 goals above expected | 76 | 335 |
| 2023-24 | 25.2 | 37 | plus 11.8 goals above expected | 80 | 349 |
| 2022-23 | 21.1 | 22 | plus 0.9 goals above expected | 77 | 293 |
| 2021-22 | 15.7 | 18 | plus 2.3 goals above expected | 64 | 209 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5 goals, 3 assists, 8 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 17 goals, 22 assists, 39 points | 3 goals, 2 assists, 5 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 21 goals, 15 assists, 36 points | 13 goals, 7 assists, 20 points | 3 goals, 1 assist, 4 points |
| 2022-23 | 17 goals, 15 assists, 32 points | 5 goals, 4 assists, 9 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 17 goals, 13 assists, 30 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
119 attempts · 5 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 1
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.