Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 489 game sample- PTS
- 82.5
- SOG
- 219.0
- G
- 18.2
- A
- 64.3
- PPP
- 30.5
- HIT
- 44.0
- BLK
- 104.5
- PIM
- 31.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 489 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 489 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 489 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 1.01
- G
- 0.22
- A
- 0.79
- SOG
- 2.68
- PPP
- 0.37
- HIT
- 0.53
- BLK
- 1.28
- PIM
- 0.38
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 21 | 74 | 95 | 1.16 | 221 | 24:41 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 14 | 53 | 67 | 0.82 | 235 | 23:28 |
| 2023-24 | 81 | 18 | 64 | 82 | 1.01 | 220 | 23:00 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 8 | 32 | 40 | 0.49 | 156 | 18:31 |
| 2021-22 | 81 | 12 | 31 | 43 | 0.53 | 205 | 19:49 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 1.17 | 8 | 24:52 |
| 2024-25 | 22 | 7 | 16 | 23 | 1.05 | 70 | 26:13 |
| 2023-24 | 25 | 6 | 26 | 32 | 1.28 | 74 | 25:01 |
| 2022-23 | 12 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 1.42 | 29 | 23:00 |
| 2021-22 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 0.56 | 39 | 18:08 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30 | @ ANAPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 24:11 |
| Apr 28 | vs ANAPO | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 27:30 |
| Apr 26 | @ ANAPO | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 22:56 |
| Apr 24 | @ ANAPO | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:41 |
| Apr 22 | vs ANAPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26:16 |
| Apr 20 | vs ANAPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 26:36 |
| Apr 16 | vs VAN | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:52 |
| Apr 13 | vs COL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 30:31 |
| Apr 11 | @ LAK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 27:36 |
| Apr 8 | @ SJS | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:32 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 8 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 17.1 | 21 | plus 3.9 goals above expected | 79 | 312 |
| 2024-25 | 14.9 | 14 | minus 0.9 goals above expected | 80 | 325 |
| 2023-24 | 12.7 | 18 | plus 5.3 goals above expected | 78 | 303 |
| 2022-23 | 9.2 | 8 | minus 1.2 goals above expected | 76 | 219 |
| 2021-22 | 9.9 | 12 | plus 2.1 goals above expected | 81 | 278 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 14 goals, 46 assists, 60 points | 7 goals, 26 assists, 33 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 12 goals, 30 assists, 42 points | 2 goals, 23 assists, 25 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 10 goals, 37 assists, 47 points | 8 goals, 27 assists, 35 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 6 goals, 20 assists, 26 points | 2 goals, 11 assists, 13 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 10 goals, 25 assists, 35 points | 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
312 attempts · 21 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 8
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.