Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 315 game sample- PTS
- 28.0
- SOG
- 132.9
- G
- 14.6
- A
- 13.4
- PPP
- 0.6
- HIT
- 76.4
- BLK
- 38.9
- PIM
- 38.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 315 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 315 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 315 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.34
- G
- 0.18
- A
- 0.16
- SOG
- 1.62
- PPP
- 0.01
- HIT
- 0.93
- BLK
- 0.47
- PIM
- 0.47
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 17 | 12 | 29 | 0.35 | 136 | 14:35 |
| 2024-25 | 84 | 10 | 15 | 25 | 0.30 | 117 | 14:28 |
| 2023-24 | 79 | 16 | 17 | 33 | 0.42 | 160 | 15:45 |
| 2022-23 | 46 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 0.24 | 62 | 9:49 |
| 2021-22 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.23 | 40 | 10:17 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 5:41 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ EDM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11:15 |
| Apr 14 | vs LAK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:43 |
| Apr 12 | @ ANA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:27 |
| Apr 11 | @ SJS | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:15 |
| Apr 9 | @ LAK | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18:06 |
| Apr 7 | vs VGK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:59 |
| Apr 4 | vs UTA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:58 |
| Apr 2 | @ MIN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:53 |
| Apr 1 | @ COL | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12:43 |
| Mar 30 | @ VGK | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16:43 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19.3 | 17 | minus 2.3 goals above expected | 72 | 208 |
| 2024-25 | 18.4 | 9 | minus 9.4 goals above expected | 76 | 197 |
| 2023-24 | 20.6 | 16 | minus 4.6 goals above expected | 72 | 218 |
| 2022-23 | 7.0 | 5 | minus 2.0 goals above expected | 40 | 91 |
| 2021-22 | 4.6 | 3 | minus 1.6 goals above expected | 20 | 54 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15 goals, 11 assists, 26 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
| 2024-25 | 7 goals, 13 assists, 20 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 15 goals, 16 assists, 31 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 5 goals, 6 assists, 11 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 3 goals, 2 assists, 5 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
208 attempts · 17 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.