Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 375 game sample- PTS
- 69.1
- SOG
- 191.0
- G
- 27.3
- A
- 41.8
- PPP
- 20.2
- HIT
- 23.7
- BLK
- 49.6
- PIM
- 22.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 375 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 375 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 375 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.85
- G
- 0.33
- A
- 0.51
- SOG
- 2.33
- PPP
- 0.25
- HIT
- 0.28
- BLK
- 0.60
- PIM
- 0.27
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 33 | 41 | 74 | 0.90 | 206 | 19:43 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 20 | 43 | 63 | 0.77 | 186 | 18:35 |
| 2023-24 | 79 | 22 | 39 | 61 | 0.77 | 158 | 19:11 |
| 2022-23 | 63 | 22 | 36 | 58 | 0.92 | 132 | 19:43 |
| 2021-22 | 63 | 23 | 36 | 59 | 0.94 | 123 | 18:15 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.67 | 12 | 23:08 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | vs VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20:37 |
| Apr 29 | @ VGKPO | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 30:46 |
| Apr 27 | vs VGKPO | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 27:46 |
| Apr 24 | vs VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 19:26 |
| Apr 21 | @ VGKPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21:19 |
| Apr 19 | @ VGKPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:56 |
| Apr 16 | vs STL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:15 |
| Apr 14 | vs WPG | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 21:21 |
| Apr 12 | @ CGY | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:49 |
| Apr 11 | vs CAR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 22:03 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 27.9 | 33 | plus 5.1 goals above expected | 81 | 292 |
| 2024-25 | 27.1 | 20 | minus 7.1 goals above expected | 80 | 264 |
| 2023-24 | 21.1 | 21 | minus 0.1 goals above expected | 75 | 245 |
| 2022-23 | 18.2 | 22 | plus 3.8 goals above expected | 61 | 195 |
| 2021-22 | 16.5 | 23 | plus 6.5 goals above expected | 54 | 163 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 20 goals, 32 assists, 52 points | 11 goals, 9 assists, 20 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 11 goals, 27 assists, 38 points | 9 goals, 16 assists, 25 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 10 goals, 28 assists, 38 points | 10 goals, 11 assists, 21 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 16 goals, 29 assists, 45 points | 6 goals, 6 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 19 goals, 32 assists, 51 points | 4 goals, 4 assists, 8 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
292 attempts · 33 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.