Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 458 game sample- PTS
- 120.3
- SOG
- 241.1
- G
- 47.6
- A
- 72.6
- PPP
- 46.6
- HIT
- 51.4
- BLK
- 29.2
- PIM
- 39.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 458 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 458 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 458 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 1.47
- G
- 0.58
- A
- 0.89
- SOG
- 2.95
- PPP
- 0.57
- HIT
- 0.62
- BLK
- 0.35
- PIM
- 0.48
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 65 | 35 | 62 | 97 | 1.49 | 186 | 21:35 |
| 2024-25 | 71 | 52 | 54 | 106 | 1.49 | 240 | 21:31 |
| 2023-24 | 81 | 41 | 65 | 106 | 1.31 | 217 | 20:42 |
| 2022-23 | 80 | 52 | 76 | 128 | 1.60 | 247 | 21:44 |
| 2021-22 | 80 | 55 | 55 | 110 | 1.38 | 278 | 22:21 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 1.67 | 13 | 22:50 |
| 2024-25 | 22 | 11 | 22 | 33 | 1.50 | 56 | 22:46 |
| 2023-24 | 25 | 10 | 21 | 31 | 1.24 | 73 | 21:23 |
| 2022-23 | 12 | 13 | 5 | 18 | 1.50 | 45 | 23:08 |
| 2021-22 | 16 | 7 | 25 | 32 | 2.00 | 44 | 21:22 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30 | @ ANAPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:01 |
| Apr 28 | vs ANAPO | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 23:22 |
| Apr 26 | @ ANAPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:45 |
| Apr 24 | @ ANAPO | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:52 |
| Apr 22 | vs ANAPO | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:56 |
| Apr 20 | vs ANAPO | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:06 |
| Mar 15 | vs NSH | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3:12 |
| Mar 13 | @ STL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:06 |
| Mar 12 | @ DAL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:36 |
| Mar 10 | @ COL | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:51 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Mar 8 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 25.6 | 35 | plus 9.4 goals above expected | 63 | 294 |
| 2024-25 | 35.3 | 52 | plus 16.7 goals above expected | 71 | 340 |
| 2023-24 | 31.3 | 41 | plus 9.7 goals above expected | 81 | 327 |
| 2022-23 | 34.6 | 52 | plus 17.4 goals above expected | 77 | 349 |
| 2021-22 | 40.5 | 55 | plus 14.5 goals above expected | 79 | 387 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18 goals, 36 assists, 54 points | 16 goals, 26 assists, 42 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 36 goals, 38 assists, 74 points | 16 goals, 16 assists, 32 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 20 goals, 45 assists, 65 points | 21 goals, 18 assists, 39 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 19 goals, 45 assists, 64 points | 32 goals, 30 assists, 62 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 30 goals, 37 assists, 67 points | 24 goals, 17 assists, 41 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
Shot locations
294 attempts · 35 goals · 2025-26Markets · Mar 8
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.