Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 427 game sample- PTS
- 59.4
- SOG
- 230.1
- G
- 28.7
- A
- 30.8
- PPP
- 14.4
- HIT
- 173.4
- BLK
- 40.6
- PIM
- 99.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 427 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 427 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 427 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.73
- G
- 0.35
- A
- 0.38
- SOG
- 2.81
- PPP
- 0.18
- HIT
- 2.12
- BLK
- 0.49
- PIM
- 1.22
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 76 | 26 | 32 | 58 | 0.76 | 201 | 18:29 |
| 2024-25 | 76 | 25 | 26 | 51 | 0.67 | 241 | 17:27 |
| 2023-24 | 69 | 20 | 21 | 41 | 0.59 | 171 | 16:37 |
| 2022-23 | 63 | 16 | 24 | 40 | 0.63 | 193 | 17:25 |
| 2021-22 | 71 | 28 | 21 | 49 | 0.69 | 241 | 16:56 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 23 | 15 | 7 | 22 | 0.96 | 69 | 17:34 |
| 2023-24 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 0.74 | 38 | 16:04 |
| 2022-23 | 20 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 0.75 | 73 | 20:52 |
| 2021-22 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.30 | 29 | 16:46 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9 | @ OTT | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17:44 |
| Apr 7 | @ MTL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:48 |
| Apr 5 | @ PIT | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 21:28 |
| Apr 4 | @ PIT | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:53 |
| Apr 2 | vs BOS | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:52 |
| Mar 31 | vs OTT | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17:19 |
| Mar 26 | vs MIN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 18:52 |
| Mar 24 | vs SEA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:59 |
| Mar 20 | @ CGY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:13 |
| Mar 19 | @ EDM | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 16:26 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 29.4 | 26 | minus 3.4 goals above expected | 73 | 311 |
| 2024-25 | 29.8 | 25 | minus 4.8 goals above expected | 75 | 332 |
| 2023-24 | 23.4 | 20 | minus 3.4 goals above expected | 67 | 248 |
| 2022-23 | 23.2 | 16 | minus 7.2 goals above expected | 60 | 253 |
| 2021-22 | 26.7 | 28 | plus 1.3 goals above expected | 68 | 292 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 21 goals, 22 assists, 43 points | 5 goals, 10 assists, 15 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 18 goals, 22 assists, 40 points | 7 goals, 4 assists, 11 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 15 goals, 14 assists, 29 points | 5 goals, 7 assists, 12 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 12 goals, 19 assists, 31 points | 4 goals, 5 assists, 9 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 23 goals, 16 assists, 39 points | 5 goals, 4 assists, 9 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
311 attempts · 26 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.