Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 397 game sample- PTS
- 80.6
- SOG
- 275.1
- G
- 41.0
- A
- 39.6
- PPP
- 23.5
- HIT
- 85.3
- BLK
- 41.8
- PIM
- 46.1
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 397 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 397 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 397 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.99
- G
- 0.50
- A
- 0.48
- SOG
- 3.37
- PPP
- 0.29
- HIT
- 1.04
- BLK
- 0.51
- PIM
- 0.56
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 40 | 41 | 81 | 1.00 | 272 | 19:14 |
| 2024-25 | 76 | 44 | 28 | 72 | 0.95 | 242 | 18:46 |
| 2023-24 | 71 | 29 | 27 | 56 | 0.79 | 246 | 18:07 |
| 2022-23 | 78 | 47 | 47 | 94 | 1.21 | 295 | 18:35 |
| 2021-22 | 78 | 38 | 30 | 68 | 0.87 | 253 | 17:53 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 1.15 | 46 | 19:58 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18 | vs MTLPO | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:56 |
| May 16 | @ MTLPO | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:14 |
| May 14 | vs MTLPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:05 |
| May 12 | @ MTLPO | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:14 |
| May 10 | @ MTLPO | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21:06 |
| May 8 | vs MTLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18:38 |
| May 6 | vs MTLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:28 |
| May 1 | @ BOSPO | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 21:54 |
| Apr 28 | vs BOSPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 24:30 |
| Apr 26 | @ BOSPO | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:18 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 34.4 | 40 | plus 5.6 goals above expected | 81 | 415 |
| 2024-25 | 25.6 | 44 | plus 18.4 goals above expected | 74 | 355 |
| 2023-24 | 25.6 | 29 | plus 3.4 goals above expected | 69 | 341 |
| 2022-23 | 34.7 | 47 | plus 12.3 goals above expected | 77 | 410 |
| 2021-22 | 27.4 | 38 | plus 10.6 goals above expected | 78 | 348 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 34 goals, 23 assists, 57 points | 6 goals, 18 assists, 24 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 37 goals, 19 assists, 56 points | 7 goals, 9 assists, 16 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 18 goals, 20 assists, 38 points | 9 goals, 7 assists, 16 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 26 goals, 33 assists, 59 points | 20 goals, 14 assists, 34 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 26 goals, 24 assists, 50 points | 10 goals, 6 assists, 16 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
Shot locations
415 attempts · 40 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.