Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 390 game sample- PTS
- 36.5
- SOG
- 150.4
- G
- 17.7
- A
- 18.8
- PPP
- 3.8
- HIT
- 66.0
- BLK
- 51.0
- PIM
- 32.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 390 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 390 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 390 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.45
- G
- 0.22
- A
- 0.23
- SOG
- 1.84
- PPP
- 0.05
- HIT
- 0.80
- BLK
- 0.62
- PIM
- 0.40
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 20 | 18 | 38 | 0.46 | 142 | 16:55 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 11 | 14 | 25 | 0.31 | 151 | 14:55 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 22 | 28 | 50 | 0.61 | 182 | 16:11 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 15 | 24 | 39 | 0.48 | 145 | 17:01 |
| 2021-22 | 63 | 17 | 17 | 34 | 0.54 | 119 | 17:35 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | vs LAK | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20:40 |
| Apr 14 | vs COL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:44 |
| Apr 12 | vs UTA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:20 |
| Apr 11 | @ SEA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15:30 |
| Apr 9 | @ COL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:31 |
| Apr 7 | @ DAL | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:57 |
| Apr 4 | @ ANA | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:42 |
| Apr 2 | @ VGK | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18:37 |
| Mar 30 | @ COL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:17 |
| Mar 28 | vs VAN | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17:36 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16.4 | 19 | plus 2.6 goals above expected | 71 | 196 |
| 2024-25 | 18.8 | 11 | minus 7.8 goals above expected | 70 | 201 |
| 2023-24 | 18.9 | 22 | plus 3.1 goals above expected | 77 | 249 |
| 2022-23 | 14.0 | 15 | plus 1.0 goals above expected | 73 | 192 |
| 2021-22 | 14.3 | 17 | plus 2.7 goals above expected | 55 | 154 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15 goals, 15 assists, 30 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 3 goals, 1 assist, 4 points |
| 2024-25 | 11 goals, 10 assists, 21 points | 0 goals, 4 assists, 4 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 20 goals, 23 assists, 43 points | 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 15 goals, 22 assists, 37 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 15 goals, 15 assists, 30 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
Shot locations
196 attempts · 19 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.