Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 403 game sample- PTS
- 90.6
- SOG
- 248.5
- G
- 32.7
- A
- 57.9
- PPP
- 33.6
- HIT
- 125.0
- BLK
- 26.0
- PIM
- 109.5
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 403 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 403 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 403 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 1.11
- G
- 0.40
- A
- 0.71
- SOG
- 3.04
- PPP
- 0.41
- HIT
- 1.53
- BLK
- 0.31
- PIM
- 1.34
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 31 | 13 | 21 | 34 | 1.10 | 88 | 18:18 |
| 2024-25 | 52 | 22 | 35 | 57 | 1.10 | 156 | 18:14 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 26 | 62 | 88 | 1.10 | 280 | 18:38 |
| 2022-23 | 79 | 40 | 69 | 109 | 1.38 | 322 | 20:26 |
| 2021-22 | 82 | 42 | 62 | 104 | 1.27 | 253 | 17:54 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 23 | 8 | 15 | 23 | 1.00 | 41 | 17:24 |
| 2023-24 | 24 | 6 | 16 | 22 | 0.92 | 83 | 18:30 |
| 2022-23 | 20 | 11 | 13 | 24 | 1.20 | 61 | 21:38 |
| 2021-22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 0.83 | 35 | 17:59 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | vs DET | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:19 |
| Apr 5 | @ PIT | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 21:09 |
| Apr 4 | @ PIT | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:41 |
| Apr 2 | vs BOS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:17 |
| Mar 31 | vs OTT | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:13 |
| Mar 29 | @ NYR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 19:03 |
| Mar 28 | @ NYI | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:43 |
| Mar 26 | vs MIN | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:19 |
| Mar 24 | vs SEA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:59 |
| Mar 20 | @ CGY | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 5 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13.2 | 13 | minus 0.1 goals above expected | 30 | 144 |
| 2024-25 | 19.6 | 22 | plus 2.4 goals above expected | 51 | 237 |
| 2023-24 | 35.5 | 26 | minus 9.5 goals above expected | 79 | 395 |
| 2022-23 | 41.1 | 40 | minus 1.1 goals above expected | 78 | 424 |
| 2021-22 | 37.0 | 42 | plus 5.0 goals above expected | 80 | 374 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9 goals, 12 assists, 21 points | 4 goals, 9 assists, 13 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 12 goals, 23 assists, 35 points | 10 goals, 12 assists, 22 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 19 goals, 36 assists, 55 points | 6 goals, 26 assists, 32 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 26 goals, 46 assists, 72 points | 14 goals, 22 assists, 36 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 31 goals, 45 assists, 76 points | 11 goals, 17 assists, 28 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
144 attempts · 13 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 5
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.