Skip to content

Insights

Where the numbers say something a scoring table does not: postseason production, finishing and goaltending against the xG model, and scoring on the power play.

Season
2025-262024-252023-242022-232021-22
Hottest finisherChris Kreider+19.0goals above expected · 52 on 33.0 expectedColdest finisherBrendan Gallagher−11.5goals below expected · 7 on 18.5 expectedBest goaltendingIgor Shesterkin+50.7goals saved above expected · 2,220 attempts faced

Playoff scoring, 2021-22

Points in the postseason

The games every other board on this site leaves out, ranked on the total with games played on the row.

#
Skater
GP
G
A
PTS
P/GP
1
Connor McDavidC
16
10
23
33
2.06
2
Leon DraisaitlC
16
7
25
32
2.00
3
Cale MakarD
20
8
21
29
1.45
4
Nikita KucherovR
23
8
19
27
1.17
5
Mikko RantanenR
20
5
20
25
1.25
6
Nathan MacKinnonC
20
13
11
24
1.20
7
Mika ZibanejadC
20
10
14
24
1.20
8
Adam FoxD
20
5
18
23
1.15
9
Gabriel LandeskogL
20
11
11
22
1.10
10
Ondrej PalatL
23
11
10
21
0.91
Why the total, not points per game — a per-game sort crowns a two-point sweep
A per-game sort with no minimum puts a two-point sweep above a twenty-nine-point run, and games played vary more than fivefold across a field decided by elimination. So the board ranks the total, and the games are on every row.

Finishing against expectation, 2021-22

How these boards are built — regular season only, and not comparable across seasons
Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts. League expected goals run 0.956 to 1.010 of actual goals by season, so totals are not comparable across seasons and each board ranks within its own. Boards sort on the total rather than the per-attempt rate, because a rate board with no minimum is a list of players with one attempt.

Above expected

Skaters who scored the most goals above what the model expected from their attempts.

#
Skater
GP
Att
G
xG
GAx
GAx / att
1
Chris KreiderL
80
343
52
33.0
+19.0
+0.055
2
Auston MatthewsC
73
484
60
44.5
+15.5
+0.032
3
Kirill KaprizovL
80
400
47
31.6
+15.4
+0.038
4
Leon DraisaitlC
79
387
55
40.5
+14.5
+0.037
5
Jason RobertsonL
73
293
41
27.3
+13.7
+0.047
6
Cale MakarD
76
319
28
14.5
+13.5
+0.042
7
Filip ForsbergL
69
332
42
28.6
+13.4
+0.040
8
Brock NelsonC
61
211
37
23.9
+13.1
+0.062
9
Josh NorrisC
63
246
35
22.7
+12.3
+0.050
10
Steven StamkosC
80
323
42
29.9
+12.1
+0.037

Below expected

The same column sorted the other way, because a board that ranks one direction only implies the other end is not a measurement.

#
Skater
GP
Att
G
xG
GAx
GAx / att
1
Brendan GallagherR
55
194
7
18.5
−11.5
−0.059
2
Mikael BacklundC
81
288
12
23.2
−11.2
−0.039
3
Alexander RadulovR
53
147
4
13.6
−9.6
−0.066
4
Phil KesselR
72
230
8
17.5
−9.5
−0.041
5
Joonas DonskoiR
59
124
2
11.2
−9.2
−0.075
6
Jesse PuljujarviR
62
226
14
22.4
−8.4
−0.037
7
Alex IafalloL
76
293
17
25.3
−8.3
−0.028
8
Travis KonecnyR
77
297
16
24.0
−8.0
−0.027
9
Anthony BeauvillierR
69
201
12
19.9
−7.9
−0.039
10
John TavaresC
77
347
27
34.9
−7.9
−0.023

Goaltending against expectation, 2021-22

What the goalie boards count — unblocked attempts, not the box score's shots against
Attempts here are open-play and unblocked, deliberately not the box score's shots against, which counts a different set of pucks. Save percentage is not shown for the same reason: the game log already gives it over that other set.

Above expected

Goalies who conceded fewer goals than the model expected from the attempts they faced.

#
Goalie
GP
Att
GA
xGA
GSAx
GSAx / 100
1
Igor Shesterkin
53
2,220
106
156.7
+50.7
+2.29
2
Frederik Andersen
52
1,989
111
142.7
+31.7
+1.59
3
Ilya Sorokin
52
2,256
123
154.3
+31.3
+1.39
4
Andrei Vasilevskiy
63
2,570
156
184.4
+28.4
+1.10
5
Juuse Saros
67
2,867
173
198.1
+25.1
+0.88
6
Jacob Markstrom
63
2,389
137
160.8
+23.8
+0.99
7
Ville Husso
40
1,727
100
122.7
+22.7
+1.31
8
Tristan Jarry
58
2,278
137
158.0
+21.0
+0.92
9
Darcy Kuemper
57
2,361
138
155.3
+17.3
+0.73
10
Jonathan Quick
46
1,761
116
132.7
+16.7
+0.95

Below expected

The same column sorted the other way; a goalie on a heavily outshot team can sit here on volume alone, which is why the attempts faced are on the row.

#
Goalie
GP
Att
GA
xGA
GSAx
GSAx / 100
1
Philipp Grubauer
55
2,059
164
132.6
−31.4
−1.52
2
Kevin Lankinen
32
1,300
106
84.9
−21.1
−1.62
3
Jonas Johansson
11
341
39
20.9
−18.1
−5.31
4
Karel Vejmelka
52
2,264
170
155.9
−14.1
−0.62
5
Samuel Montembeault
38
1,507
121
108.2
−12.8
−0.85
6
Cayden Primeau
12
409
40
27.3
−12.7
−3.11
7
Joonas Korpisalo
22
834
78
65.5
−12.5
−1.50
8
Ilya Samsonov
44
1,610
119
106.8
−12.2
−0.76
9
Petr Mrazek
20
686
58
47.3
−10.7
−1.56
10
Carter Hutton
3
77
15
4.9
−10.1
−13.07

Power-play points, 2021-22

With the man advantage

Points recorded while the skater's side had the extra man, read from the on-ice strength state of every event.

#
Skater
G
A
PTS
SOG
1
Connor McDavidC
10
34
44
79
2
Leon DraisaitlC
24
17
41
96
3
J.T. MillerC
9
30
39
53
4
Victor HedmanD
6
32
38
53
6
Roman JosiD
11
26
37
63
7
Mikko RantanenR
16
20
36
91
9
Chris KreiderL
26
9
35
66
10
Steven StamkosC
15
20
35
105
Shots here — shots on goal, not the attempts on the finishing boards
The shots column on this board counts shots on goal. The finishing boards count open-play unblocked attempts, a larger population, so the two are not the same number and should not be compared.
Why no club is shown — the club we hold is today's, not the season's
We hold each player's CURRENT club, not the one they played for in the season a board describes. Among the top 50 finishers that would be wrong for 8 of 50 in 2025-26 and 29 of 50 in 2021-22, so the column is left off rather than shown wrong. Follow a name to the player's page for club and history. The club we hold, like every board on this page, is updated once a day.

Does finishing persist?

Yes, partly — it beat both simpler rules, so far on a backtest only: no live projection has been graded yet.

The finishing boards above show who out-scored the model. The projection says how much of a hot season should carry into the next, and this is where that forecast is graded, two ways that are not interchangeable.

Tested on 2025-26 — a season the rule never saw

a backtest, not a track record

483 of 490 projections scored · 7 unscoreable

The unscoreable ones are players who did not play 2025-26. They are counted rather than dropped — a rule that only looks good on the players who came back would otherwise look the same as one that works.

vs. assuming it all goes awaybetter

2.7% lower prediction error

A small margin is the honest outcome here, not a weak one — the rule keeps under a fifth of a hot season, so its forecast is close to this baseline by construction. A large number would be evidence of a bug.

average error 1.7634 against 1.8124 — a paired difference of −0.0490 [−0.0804, −0.0176]

vs. assuming last season repeatsbetter

18.3% lower prediction error

average error 1.7634 against 2.1593 — a paired difference of −0.3959 [−0.5184, −0.2734]

The live record

Nothing graded yet. Every projection is recorded on the day it is made, but none has come due yet — these are forecasts about next season, so the first ones can be graded once it has been played.

The difference from the backtest above matters. A backtest can be re-run until it flatters; a prediction recorded before the season it describes cannot be, because the data it will be scored against does not exist yet.