Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 371 game sample- PTS
- 99.3
- SOG
- 280.9
- G
- 47.0
- A
- 52.2
- PPP
- 34.3
- HIT
- 60.8
- BLK
- 37.7
- PIM
- 32.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 371 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 371 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 371 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 1.22
- G
- 0.58
- A
- 0.64
- SOG
- 3.44
- PPP
- 0.42
- HIT
- 0.74
- BLK
- 0.46
- PIM
- 0.40
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 78 | 45 | 44 | 89 | 1.14 | 269 | 22:09 |
| 2024-25 | 41 | 25 | 31 | 56 | 1.37 | 145 | 22:28 |
| 2023-24 | 75 | 46 | 50 | 96 | 1.28 | 277 | 21:35 |
| 2022-23 | 67 | 40 | 35 | 75 | 1.12 | 261 | 21:07 |
| 2021-22 | 81 | 47 | 61 | 108 | 1.33 | 289 | 19:07 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 1.36 | 25 | 23:57 |
| 2024-25 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 1.50 | 22 | 23:08 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | 17 | 22:53 |
| 2021-22 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 1.33 | 27 | 19:26 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13 | @ COLPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 22:36 |
| May 11 | vs COLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 24:27 |
| May 9 | vs COLPO | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 23:27 |
| May 5 | @ COLPO | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 23:12 |
| May 3 | @ COLPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21:46 |
| Apr 30 | vs DALPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 22:11 |
| Apr 28 | @ DALPO | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:09 |
| Apr 25 | vs DALPO | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 28:35 |
| Apr 22 | vs DALPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 36:22 |
| Apr 20 | @ DALPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 24:43 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 39.1 | 45 | plus 5.9 goals above expected | 78 | 423 |
| 2024-25 | 18.9 | 25 | plus 6.1 goals above expected | 41 | 203 |
| 2023-24 | 36.4 | 46 | plus 9.6 goals above expected | 75 | 414 |
| 2022-23 | 33.1 | 40 | plus 6.9 goals above expected | 67 | 370 |
| 2021-22 | 31.6 | 47 | plus 15.4 goals above expected | 80 | 400 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 26 goals, 31 assists, 57 points | 19 goals, 13 assists, 32 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 21 goals, 21 assists, 42 points | 4 goals, 10 assists, 14 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 27 goals, 27 assists, 54 points | 19 goals, 23 assists, 42 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 22 goals, 20 assists, 42 points | 18 goals, 15 assists, 33 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 33 goals, 44 assists, 77 points | 14 goals, 17 assists, 31 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
423 attempts · 45 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.