Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 360 game sample- PTS
- 68.8
- SOG
- 237.8
- G
- 17.1
- A
- 51.6
- PPP
- 29.1
- HIT
- 43.4
- BLK
- 135.7
- PIM
- 36.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 360 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 360 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 360 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.84
- G
- 0.21
- A
- 0.63
- SOG
- 2.91
- PPP
- 0.36
- HIT
- 0.52
- BLK
- 1.66
- PIM
- 0.45
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 68 | 13 | 42 | 55 | 0.81 | 181 | 24:53 |
| 2024-25 | 53 | 9 | 29 | 38 | 0.72 | 150 | 25:02 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 23 | 62 | 85 | 1.04 | 268 | 24:38 |
| 2022-23 | 67 | 18 | 41 | 59 | 0.88 | 269 | 25:10 |
| 2021-22 | 80 | 23 | 73 | 96 | 1.20 | 281 | 25:33 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.50 | 13 | 25:44 |
| 2021-22 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.50 | 21 | 26:04 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13 | vs SJS | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 25:48 |
| Apr 11 | vs MIN | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 27:10 |
| Apr 7 | @ ANA | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:31 |
| Apr 6 | @ LAK | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28:09 |
| Apr 4 | @ SJS | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 27:07 |
| Apr 2 | @ LAK | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 27:49 |
| Mar 29 | @ TBL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 27:05 |
| Mar 28 | vs MTL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:30 |
| Mar 26 | vs NJD | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 25:46 |
| Mar 24 | vs SJS | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:28 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 7 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11.6 | 13 | plus 1.4 goals above expected | 68 | 251 |
| 2024-25 | 11.9 | 9 | minus 2.9 goals above expected | 52 | 234 |
| 2023-24 | 17.7 | 23 | plus 5.3 goals above expected | 81 | 379 |
| 2022-23 | 18.6 | 18 | minus 0.6 goals above expected | 67 | 357 |
| 2021-22 | 16.8 | 23 | plus 6.2 goals above expected | 78 | 385 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9 goals, 22 assists, 31 points | 4 goals, 20 assists, 24 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 7 goals, 14 assists, 21 points | 2 goals, 15 assists, 17 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 14 goals, 37 assists, 51 points | 9 goals, 24 assists, 33 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 10 goals, 25 assists, 35 points | 8 goals, 16 assists, 24 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 12 goals, 47 assists, 59 points | 11 goals, 26 assists, 37 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
251 attempts · 13 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 7
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.