Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 394 game sample- PTS
- 24.7
- SOG
- 99.3
- G
- 9.9
- A
- 14.8
- PPP
- 3.2
- HIT
- 133.8
- BLK
- 65.5
- PIM
- 18.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 394 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 394 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 394 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.30
- G
- 0.12
- A
- 0.18
- SOG
- 1.21
- PPP
- 0.04
- HIT
- 1.63
- BLK
- 0.80
- PIM
- 0.22
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 80 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 0.19 | 83 | 12:49 |
| 2024-25 | 77 | 15 | 13 | 28 | 0.36 | 96 | 13:45 |
| 2023-24 | 71 | 11 | 20 | 31 | 0.44 | 108 | 15:39 |
| 2022-23 | 49 | 8 | 15 | 23 | 0.47 | 79 | 15:32 |
| 2021-22 | 77 | 18 | 31 | 49 | 0.64 | 143 | 16:30 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.40 | 5 | 17:40 |
| 2022-23 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0.58 | 16 | 16:50 |
| 2021-22 | 23 | 11 | 10 | 21 | 0.91 | 49 | 16:59 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | vs CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:48 |
| Apr 11 | vs OTT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10:36 |
| Apr 9 | vs TOR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10:41 |
| Apr 4 | @ CAR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9:46 |
| Apr 3 | vs PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:49 |
| Mar 31 | @ BUF | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11:42 |
| Mar 30 | vs PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:12 |
| Mar 28 | vs FLA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10:47 |
| Mar 26 | vs DAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11:51 |
| Mar 24 | vs CHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14:06 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Mar 1 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10.7 | 5 | minus 5.7 goals above expected | 58 | 134 |
| 2024-25 | 14.3 | 15 | plus 0.7 goals above expected | 63 | 150 |
| 2023-24 | 13.1 | 11 | minus 2.1 goals above expected | 65 | 154 |
| 2022-23 | 9.9 | 8 | minus 1.9 goals above expected | 44 | 110 |
| 2021-22 | 20.5 | 18 | minus 2.5 goals above expected | 71 | 197 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 goals, 9 assists, 13 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 12 goals, 12 assists, 24 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 10 goals, 16 assists, 26 points | 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 7 goals, 13 assists, 20 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 17 goals, 25 assists, 42 points | 1 goal, 5 assists, 6 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
134 attempts · 5 goals · 2025-26Markets · Mar 1
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.