Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 464 game sample- PTS
- 88.5
- SOG
- 263.0
- G
- 40.3
- A
- 48.2
- PPP
- 33.9
- HIT
- 58.7
- BLK
- 37.0
- PIM
- 24.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 464 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 464 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 464 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 1.08
- G
- 0.49
- A
- 0.59
- SOG
- 3.22
- PPP
- 0.42
- HIT
- 0.71
- BLK
- 0.45
- PIM
- 0.30
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 45 | 51 | 96 | 1.17 | 294 | 20:15 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 35 | 45 | 80 | 0.98 | 211 | 17:47 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 29 | 51 | 80 | 0.98 | 231 | 18:19 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 46 | 63 | 109 | 1.33 | 313 | 18:50 |
| 2021-22 | 74 | 41 | 38 | 79 | 1.07 | 220 | 18:07 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 1.33 | 30 | 23:17 |
| 2024-25 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0.55 | 22 | 15:50 |
| 2023-24 | 19 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 0.84 | 46 | 19:44 |
| 2022-23 | 19 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 0.95 | 57 | 18:46 |
| 2021-22 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.57 | 16 | 19:07 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30 | @ MINPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 24:45 |
| Apr 28 | vs MINPO | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:07 |
| Apr 25 | @ MINPO | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:13 |
| Apr 22 | @ MINPO | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 29:05 |
| Apr 20 | vs MINPO | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:36 |
| Apr 18 | vs MINPO | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:56 |
| Apr 15 | @ BUF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:26 |
| Apr 13 | @ TOR | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:26 |
| Apr 11 | vs NYR | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:58 |
| Apr 9 | vs MIN | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:14 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 39.4 | 45 | plus 5.6 goals above expected | 82 | 423 |
| 2024-25 | 25.6 | 35 | plus 9.4 goals above expected | 80 | 293 |
| 2023-24 | 24.7 | 29 | plus 4.3 goals above expected | 81 | 334 |
| 2022-23 | 34.8 | 46 | plus 11.2 goals above expected | 79 | 412 |
| 2021-22 | 27.3 | 41 | plus 13.7 goals above expected | 73 | 293 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 30 goals, 25 assists, 55 points | 15 goals, 26 assists, 41 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 26 goals, 35 assists, 61 points | 9 goals, 10 assists, 19 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 20 goals, 32 assists, 52 points | 9 goals, 19 assists, 28 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 33 goals, 35 assists, 68 points | 13 goals, 28 assists, 41 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 28 goals, 30 assists, 58 points | 13 goals, 8 assists, 21 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
423 attempts · 45 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.