Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 434 game sample- PTS
- 71.8
- SOG
- 220.3
- G
- 33.2
- A
- 38.5
- PPP
- 21.7
- HIT
- 98.1
- BLK
- 36.3
- PIM
- 35.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 434 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 434 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 434 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.88
- G
- 0.41
- A
- 0.47
- SOG
- 2.69
- PPP
- 0.27
- HIT
- 1.20
- BLK
- 0.44
- PIM
- 0.43
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 31 | 40 | 71 | 0.87 | 192 | 18:11 |
| 2024-25 | 75 | 38 | 36 | 74 | 0.99 | 200 | 18:14 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 29 | 36 | 65 | 0.81 | 279 | 17:52 |
| 2022-23 | 80 | 36 | 44 | 80 | 1.00 | 277 | 17:40 |
| 2021-22 | 79 | 27 | 49 | 76 | 0.96 | 237 | 18:04 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.54 | 40 | 18:34 |
| 2023-24 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.29 | 22 | 19:04 |
| 2022-23 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0.73 | 44 | 18:44 |
| 2021-22 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0.86 | 14 | 18:35 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ OTT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 20:05 |
| Apr 13 | vs DAL | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:03 |
| Apr 11 | vs FLA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:01 |
| Apr 9 | @ NYI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:39 |
| Apr 8 | vs WSH | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19:32 |
| Apr 4 | @ LAK | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:21 |
| Apr 2 | @ SJS | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:13 |
| Mar 30 | @ ANA | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:04 |
| Mar 28 | @ STL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:48 |
| Mar 25 | vs NYR | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:19 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 35.9 | 31 | minus 4.9 goals above expected | 80 | 303 |
| 2024-25 | 30.1 | 38 | plus 7.9 goals above expected | 72 | 281 |
| 2023-24 | 37.6 | 29 | minus 8.6 goals above expected | 79 | 385 |
| 2022-23 | 44.0 | 36 | minus 8.0 goals above expected | 78 | 392 |
| 2021-22 | 34.9 | 27 | minus 7.9 goals above expected | 77 | 347 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19 goals, 32 assists, 51 points | 12 goals, 8 assists, 20 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 27 goals, 28 assists, 55 points | 11 goals, 8 assists, 19 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 20 goals, 25 assists, 45 points | 9 goals, 11 assists, 20 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 18 goals, 23 assists, 41 points | 18 goals, 21 assists, 39 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 17 goals, 33 assists, 50 points | 10 goals, 16 assists, 26 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
303 attempts · 31 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.