Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 391 game sample- PTS
- 86.0
- SOG
- 326.8
- G
- 42.9
- A
- 43.1
- PPP
- 23.4
- HIT
- 78.2
- BLK
- 105.4
- PIM
- 23.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 391 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 391 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 391 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 1.05
- G
- 0.53
- A
- 0.53
- SOG
- 4.00
- PPP
- 0.29
- HIT
- 0.95
- BLK
- 1.29
- PIM
- 0.28
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 60 | 27 | 26 | 53 | 0.88 | 227 | 20:48 |
| 2024-25 | 67 | 33 | 45 | 78 | 1.16 | 261 | 20:28 |
| 2023-24 | 81 | 69 | 38 | 107 | 1.32 | 369 | 20:58 |
| 2022-23 | 74 | 40 | 45 | 85 | 1.15 | 327 | 20:17 |
| 2021-22 | 73 | 60 | 46 | 106 | 1.45 | 348 | 20:37 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 0.85 | 47 | 20:39 |
| 2023-24 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.80 | 20 | 19:53 |
| 2022-23 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 1.00 | 49 | 22:53 |
| 2021-22 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 1.29 | 29 | 22:17 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12 | vs ANA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:18 |
| Mar 10 | @ MTL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 22:28 |
| Mar 7 | vs TBL | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:17 |
| Mar 5 | @ NYR | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 20:46 |
| Mar 4 | @ NJD | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 24:57 |
| Mar 2 | vs PHI | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 26:06 |
| Feb 28 | vs OTT | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 17:55 |
| Feb 26 | @ FLA | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:34 |
| Feb 25 | @ TBL | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 22:54 |
| Feb 3 | @ EDM | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:11 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Mar 10 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 29.9 | 27 | minus 2.9 goals above expected | 60 | 329 |
| 2024-25 | 39.1 | 33 | minus 6.1 goals above expected | 67 | 388 |
| 2023-24 | 48.2 | 69 | plus 20.8 goals above expected | 81 | 534 |
| 2022-23 | 40.9 | 40 | minus 0.9 goals above expected | 74 | 453 |
| 2021-22 | 44.5 | 60 | plus 15.5 goals above expected | 73 | 484 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 22 goals, 19 assists, 41 points | 5 goals, 7 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 21 goals, 30 assists, 51 points | 10 goals, 15 assists, 25 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 51 goals, 26 assists, 77 points | 18 goals, 11 assists, 29 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 27 goals, 30 assists, 57 points | 13 goals, 15 assists, 28 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 45 goals, 33 assists, 78 points | 15 goals, 13 assists, 28 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
329 attempts · 27 goals · 2025-26Markets · Mar 10
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.