Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 396 game sample- PTS
- 28.6
- SOG
- 154.7
- G
- 14.4
- A
- 14.2
- PPP
- 1.9
- HIT
- 106.5
- BLK
- 42.3
- PIM
- 22.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 396 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 396 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 396 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.35
- G
- 0.18
- A
- 0.17
- SOG
- 1.89
- PPP
- 0.02
- HIT
- 1.30
- BLK
- 0.51
- PIM
- 0.28
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 15 | 13 | 28 | 0.34 | 155 | 15:48 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 15 | 10 | 25 | 0.31 | 149 | 12:52 |
| 2023-24 | 60 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 0.28 | 105 | 13:35 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 18 | 22 | 40 | 0.49 | 176 | 16:16 |
| 2021-22 | 75 | 12 | 22 | 34 | 0.45 | 154 | 16:50 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0.60 | 21 | 13:02 |
| 2023-24 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.33 | 9 | 13:01 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | @ CBJ | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 |
| Apr 12 | vs PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 15:27 |
| Apr 11 | @ PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:56 |
| Apr 8 | @ TOR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 17:14 |
| Apr 5 | @ NYR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:46 |
| Apr 4 | vs BUF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:44 |
| Apr 2 | @ NJD | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:10 |
| Mar 31 | vs PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:17 |
| Mar 28 | @ VGK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:07 |
| Mar 26 | @ UTA | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 17:24 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 8 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 20.1 | 15 | minus 5.1 goals above expected | 74 | 229 |
| 2024-25 | 17.8 | 15 | minus 2.8 goals above expected | 72 | 209 |
| 2023-24 | 11.4 | 5 | minus 6.4 goals above expected | 55 | 161 |
| 2022-23 | 21.5 | 18 | minus 3.5 goals above expected | 74 | 233 |
| 2021-22 | 19.9 | 12 | minus 7.9 goals above expected | 69 | 201 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 14 goals, 12 assists, 26 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 14 goals, 9 assists, 23 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 3 goals, 10 assists, 13 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 15 goals, 21 assists, 36 points | 3 goals, 1 assist, 4 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 7 goals, 16 assists, 23 points | 5 goals, 6 assists, 11 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
229 attempts · 15 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 8
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.