Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 395 game sample- PTS
- 76.3
- SOG
- 177.3
- G
- 25.2
- A
- 51.1
- PPP
- 26.7
- HIT
- 176.3
- BLK
- 49.6
- PIM
- 50.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 395 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 395 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 395 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.93
- G
- 0.31
- A
- 0.63
- SOG
- 2.17
- PPP
- 0.33
- HIT
- 2.16
- BLK
- 0.60
- PIM
- 0.61
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 68 | 17 | 36 | 53 | 0.78 | 144 | 20:09 |
| 2024-25 | 72 | 22 | 48 | 70 | 0.97 | 137 | 18:12 |
| 2023-24 | 81 | 37 | 66 | 103 | 1.27 | 194 | 19:29 |
| 2022-23 | 81 | 32 | 50 | 82 | 1.01 | 223 | 20:41 |
| 2021-22 | 80 | 32 | 67 | 99 | 1.24 | 206 | 21:05 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 0.92 | 29 | 21:26 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ TBL | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:23 |
| Apr 13 | @ FLA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 20:13 |
| Apr 11 | @ DAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 16:52 |
| Apr 8 | vs BUF | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:51 |
| Apr 5 | vs WSH | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:58 |
| Apr 4 | vs DET | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 17:05 |
| Apr 2 | vs MTL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:40 |
| Mar 31 | vs NJD | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 19:10 |
| Mar 29 | vs FLA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 17:44 |
| Mar 27 | vs CHI | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 17:00 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 8 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 22.0 | 17 | minus 5.0 goals above expected | 63 | 232 |
| 2024-25 | 20.1 | 22 | plus 1.9 goals above expected | 65 | 214 |
| 2023-24 | 27.9 | 37 | plus 9.1 goals above expected | 80 | 304 |
| 2022-23 | 26.3 | 31 | plus 4.7 goals above expected | 80 | 310 |
| 2021-22 | 27.9 | 31 | plus 3.1 goals above expected | 76 | 292 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11 goals, 22 assists, 33 points | 6 goals, 13 assists, 19 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 17 goals, 28 assists, 45 points | 5 goals, 16 assists, 21 points | 0 goals, 4 assists, 4 points |
| 2023-24 | 24 goals, 37 assists, 61 points | 11 goals, 29 assists, 40 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 15 goals, 27 assists, 42 points | 11 goals, 19 assists, 30 points | 5 goals, 4 assists, 9 points |
| 2021-22 | 22 goals, 35 assists, 57 points | 9 goals, 30 assists, 39 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
Shot locations
232 attempts · 17 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 8
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.