Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 404 game sample- PTS
- 74.6
- SOG
- 145.2
- G
- 13.0
- A
- 61.6
- PPP
- 30.3
- HIT
- 42.0
- BLK
- 122.8
- PIM
- 34.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 404 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 404 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 404 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.91
- G
- 0.16
- A
- 0.75
- SOG
- 1.77
- PPP
- 0.37
- HIT
- 0.51
- BLK
- 1.50
- PIM
- 0.42
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 55 | 9 | 44 | 53 | 0.96 | 91 | 23:38 |
| 2024-25 | 74 | 10 | 51 | 61 | 0.82 | 135 | 23:15 |
| 2023-24 | 72 | 17 | 56 | 73 | 1.01 | 137 | 23:26 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 12 | 60 | 72 | 0.88 | 159 | 24:23 |
| 2021-22 | 78 | 11 | 63 | 74 | 0.95 | 158 | 23:55 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 16 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0.50 | 25 | 23:58 |
| 2022-23 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 1.14 | 10 | 23:05 |
| 2021-22 | 20 | 5 | 18 | 23 | 1.15 | 42 | 26:38 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ TBL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:32 |
| Apr 13 | @ FLA | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28:10 |
| Apr 11 | @ DAL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 25:35 |
| Apr 8 | vs BUF | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23:20 |
| Apr 5 | vs WSH | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:31 |
| Apr 4 | vs DET | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 22:39 |
| Apr 2 | vs MTL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23:10 |
| Mar 31 | vs NJD | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 22:37 |
| Mar 29 | vs FLA | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 23:52 |
| Mar 27 | vs CHI | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21:38 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 8 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6.7 | 9 | plus 2.3 goals above expected | 50 | 156 |
| 2024-25 | 11.1 | 10 | minus 1.1 goals above expected | 71 | 208 |
| 2023-24 | 10.0 | 17 | plus 7.0 goals above expected | 66 | 195 |
| 2022-23 | 12.5 | 12 | minus 0.5 goals above expected | 72 | 220 |
| 2021-22 | 9.2 | 11 | plus 1.8 goals above expected | 71 | 197 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 goals, 24 assists, 28 points | 5 goals, 19 assists, 24 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 8 goals, 32 assists, 40 points | 1 goal, 17 assists, 18 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points |
| 2023-24 | 10 goals, 29 assists, 39 points | 6 goals, 27 assists, 33 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 11 goals, 30 assists, 41 points | 1 goal, 27 assists, 28 points | 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points |
| 2021-22 | 10 goals, 29 assists, 39 points | 0 goals, 33 assists, 33 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
Shot locations
156 attempts · 9 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 8
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.