Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 375 game sample- PTS
- 77.9
- SOG
- 268.6
- G
- 38.3
- A
- 39.6
- PPP
- 26.6
- HIT
- 135.3
- BLK
- 40.4
- PIM
- 37.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 375 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 375 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 375 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.95
- G
- 0.47
- A
- 0.48
- SOG
- 3.29
- PPP
- 0.33
- HIT
- 1.65
- BLK
- 0.49
- PIM
- 0.46
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 40 | 35 | 75 | 0.91 | 246 | 18:53 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 31 | 45 | 76 | 0.93 | 281 | 18:38 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 48 | 46 | 94 | 1.15 | 347 | 18:55 |
| 2022-23 | 50 | 19 | 23 | 42 | 0.84 | 157 | 17:28 |
| 2021-22 | 69 | 42 | 42 | 84 | 1.22 | 226 | 18:06 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1.00 | 17 | 20:26 |
| 2021-22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 13 | 20:05 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | vs ANA | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:01 |
| Apr 13 | vs SJS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 22:19 |
| Apr 11 | vs MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:49 |
| Apr 9 | @ UTA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:01 |
| Apr 7 | @ ANA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16:21 |
| Apr 6 | @ LAK | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 20:41 |
| Apr 4 | @ SJS | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:45 |
| Apr 2 | @ LAK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:34 |
| Mar 29 | @ TBL | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19:37 |
| Mar 28 | vs MTL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:24 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 28.1 | 40 | plus 11.9 goals above expected | 82 | 390 |
| 2024-25 | 31.8 | 31 | minus 0.8 goals above expected | 82 | 437 |
| 2023-24 | 37.6 | 48 | plus 10.4 goals above expected | 82 | 499 |
| 2022-23 | 17.6 | 19 | plus 1.4 goals above expected | 49 | 242 |
| 2021-22 | 28.6 | 42 | plus 13.4 goals above expected | 69 | 332 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 29 goals, 20 assists, 49 points | 11 goals, 15 assists, 26 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 21 goals, 29 assists, 50 points | 10 goals, 16 assists, 26 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 35 goals, 27 assists, 62 points | 13 goals, 19 assists, 32 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 15 goals, 14 assists, 29 points | 4 goals, 9 assists, 13 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 32 goals, 25 assists, 57 points | 10 goals, 17 assists, 27 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
390 attempts · 40 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.