Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 412 game sample- PTS
- 30.5
- SOG
- 121.9
- G
- 13.7
- A
- 16.8
- PPP
- 6.7
- HIT
- 96.4
- BLK
- 60.3
- PIM
- 16.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 412 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 412 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 412 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.37
- G
- 0.17
- A
- 0.20
- SOG
- 1.49
- PPP
- 0.08
- HIT
- 1.18
- BLK
- 0.74
- PIM
- 0.20
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 79 | 13 | 16 | 29 | 0.37 | 114 | 15:35 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 15 | 16 | 31 | 0.38 | 109 | 13:17 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 11 | 16 | 27 | 0.33 | 120 | 15:19 |
| 2022-23 | 59 | 14 | 22 | 36 | 0.61 | 133 | 16:18 |
| 2021-22 | 79 | 17 | 20 | 37 | 0.47 | 215 | 18:30 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.15 | 17 | 16:07 |
| 2023-24 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 10:51 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.67 | 13 | 18:54 |
| 2021-22 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.57 | 23 | 17:28 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11 | vs PHI | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 15:03 |
| Apr 9 | @ STL | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:28 |
| Apr 6 | vs SEA | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:45 |
| Apr 4 | @ CBJ | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 19:45 |
| Apr 2 | @ DAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:58 |
| Mar 31 | @ CHI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:18 |
| Mar 28 | @ COL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18:25 |
| Mar 26 | vs COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:04 |
| Mar 24 | vs VGK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 14:28 |
| Mar 22 | @ NYR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18:22 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 6 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15.5 | 13 | minus 2.5 goals above expected | 67 | 168 |
| 2024-25 | 14.3 | 15 | plus 0.7 goals above expected | 68 | 156 |
| 2023-24 | 16.3 | 11 | minus 5.3 goals above expected | 71 | 195 |
| 2022-23 | 12.4 | 14 | plus 1.6 goals above expected | 55 | 170 |
| 2021-22 | 25.3 | 17 | minus 8.3 goals above expected | 76 | 293 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11 goals, 12 assists, 23 points | 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 9 goals, 12 assists, 21 points | 6 goals, 4 assists, 10 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 9 goals, 12 assists, 21 points | 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 7 goals, 21 assists, 28 points | 7 goals, 1 assist, 8 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 14 goals, 16 assists, 30 points | 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
Shot locations
168 attempts · 13 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 6
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.